TexasLonghorns

6-0 T1st (2-0) in SEC

Data from 2024-10-13 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

86.2%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/31	vsColorado StateCSU	W52-0
2	9/07	@MichiganMICH	W31-12
3	9/14	vsUTSAUTSA	W56-7
4	9/21	vsUL MonroeULM	W51-3
5	9/28	vsMississippi StateMSST	W35-13
7	10/12	vsOklahomaOU(N)	W34-3
8	10/19	vsGeorgiaUGA	Win prob:74%
9	10/26	@VanderbiltVAN	Win prob:98%
11	11/09	vsFloridaFLA	Win prob:98%
12	11/16	@ArkansasARK	Win prob:96%
13	11/23	vsKentuckyUK	Win prob:96%
14	11/30	@Texas A&MTA&M	Win prob:85%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	56.0%	100.0%
7-1	36.0%	82.2%
6-2	7.4%	7.7%
5-3	0.6%	0%
4-4	0.0%	0%
3-5	0%	0%
2-6	0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

37.3%

27.6%

19.0%

9.1%

7.0%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Ball StateBALL@VanderbiltVAN	85.9% (-0.3%)	86.2% (+0.0%)
AuburnAUB@MissouriMIZ	86.3% (+0.1%)	86.2% (-0.0%)
South CarolinaSC@OklahomaOU	85.6% (-0.5%)	86.4% (+0.2%)
LSULSU@ArkansasARK	85.4% (-0.7%)	90.5% (+4.3%)
GeorgiaUGA@TexasTEX	62.1% (-24.0%)	94.5% (+8.3%)
Texas A&MTA&M@Mississippi StateMSST	85.8% (-0.4%)	88.9% (+2.8%)
AlabamaALA@TennesseeTENN	84.9% (-1.2%)	87.6% (+1.4%)
KentuckyUK@FloridaFLA	86.3% (+0.1%)	86.0% (-0.1%)

Best Winner Combination for

Ball State

Auburn

South Carolina

Arkansas

Mississippi State

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Texas

CCG: 94.5% • Scenario: 74.3%

Ways for to Clinch CCG Spot This Week

South Carolina

Arkansas

Texas

Mississippi State

Alabama

0.2%

Auburn

Arkansas

Texas

Mississippi State

Tennessee

0.1%

Auburn

Arkansas

Texas

Mississippi State

Florida

0.1%

Ball State

Auburn

Texas

Mississippi State

Alabama

0.1%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

56.0%

Any 1 loss

82.2%

36.0%

98.3%

2.3%

95.3%

2.1%

95.1%

1.4%

91.1%

1.1%

80.9%

19.3%

75.3%

9.8%

Any 2 losses

7.7%

7.4%

31.3%

<0.1%

29.2%

<0.1%

23.8%

<0.1%

18.0%

<0.1%

17.8%

0.4%

17.3%

<0.1%

16.2%

<0.1%

12.4%

0.9%

11.9%

0.2%

10.6%

0.2%

9.5%

0.4%

8.1%

0.4%

6.4%

0.4%

6.3%

0.7%

3.6%

3.3%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com