Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
8.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W63-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W42-16 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W42-10 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W41-34 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | L35-40 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W27-25 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | L17-24 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:86% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:56% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:90% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:81% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:95% |
Data from 2024-10-20
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 36.8% | 22.6% |
| 5-3 | 45.7% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 15.5% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 1.9% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-20
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-20
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 9.3% (+0.9%) | 8.1% (-0.2%) | |
| 0.0% (-8.3%) | 9.7% (+1.3%) | |
| 7.3% (-1.0%) | 9.9% (+1.6%) | |
| 8.3% (+0.0%) | 8.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 8.8% (+0.5%) | 7.9% (-0.4%) | |
| 8.1% (-0.3%) | 18.5% (+10.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
OklahomaAlabama
Texas A&M
Arkansas
Auburn
VanderbiltCCG: 30.3% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
AlabamaCCG: 9.7% • Scenario: 86.1%
Data from 2024-10-20
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
22.5%
33.2%
23.5%
3.6%Data from 2024-10-20
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-20