Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
61.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W49-10 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W38-23 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W41-17 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L21-26 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W30-20 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | L15-30 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W13-6 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:72% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:76% | |
| 12 | 11/12 | Win prob:90% | |
| 13 | 11/20 | Win prob:74% | |
| 14 | 11/26 | Win prob:92% |
Data from 2024-10-20
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 33.0% | 99.9% |
| 6-2 | 42.3% | 67.3% |
| 5-3 | 20.0% | 2.4% |
| 4-4 | 4.3% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.4% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-20
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-20
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 59.5% (-2.4%) | 62.7% (+0.9%) | |
| 65.2% (+3.3%) | 61.5% (-0.4%) | |
| 65.4% (+3.6%) | 61.5% (-0.4%) | |
| 61.7% (-0.1%) | 62.2% (+0.3%) | |
| 34.8% (-27.1%) | 72.5% (+10.6%) | |
| 62.0% (+0.1%) | 61.1% (-0.8%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Ohio
Central Michigan
Kent State
AkronToledo
Ball StateCCG: 85.2% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
ToledoCCG: 72.5% • Scenario: 71.8%
Data from 2024-10-20
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.9%
33.0%Any 1 loss
67.3%
42.3%74.7%
3.6%
73.1%
13.1%72.4%
3.1%
63.6%
10.4%60.6%
12.0%Any 2 losses
2.4%
20.0%5.6%
0.3%4.5%
1.1%4.1%
0.9%3.5%
1.2%2.9%
1.5%2.3%
4.2%2.3%
1.3%2.2%
1.1%2.0%
3.8%1.3%
4.6%Data from 2024-10-20
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-20