Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
19.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W30-13 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L0-38 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W34-3 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W23-20 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L3-47 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W30-15 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | L41-48 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:27% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:73% | |
| 12 | 11/12 | Win prob:80% | |
| 13 | 11/20 | Win prob:44% | |
| 14 | 11/26 | Win prob:91% |
Data from 2024-10-20
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 6.2% | 96.8% |
| 6-2 | 29.4% | 45.9% |
| 5-3 | 40.9% | 0.4% |
| 4-4 | 19.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 3.5% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-20
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-20
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 44.8% (+25.2%) | 10.5% (-9.2%) | |
| 23.9% (+4.2%) | 19.1% (-0.5%) | |
| 22.5% (+2.9%) | 19.3% (-0.3%) | |
| 19.4% (-0.3%) | 20.3% (+0.6%) | |
| 18.7% (-0.9%) | 20.0% (+0.4%) | |
| 19.4% (-0.3%) | 21.2% (+1.6%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Buffalo
Central Michigan
Kent State
Akron
Bowling Green
Northern IllinoisCCG: 69.2% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
BuffaloCCG: 44.8% • Scenario: 26.7%
Data from 2024-10-20
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
96.8%
6.2%Any 1 loss
45.9%
29.4%55.0%
2.3%53.9%
0.6%
51.4%
1.5%
45.1%
7.8%
44.2%
17.1%Data from 2024-10-20
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-20