Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W51-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W38-0 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W27-21 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W30-27 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | L10-41 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W45-3 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W21-17 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:14% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:63% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:41% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:83% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:85% |
Data from 2024-10-20
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 2.6% | 39.3% |
| 6-2 | 21.7% | 0.8% |
| 5-3 | 42.2% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 26.7% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 6.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-20
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-20
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 1.4% (+0.2%) | 1.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 8.3% (+7.1%) | 0.1% (-1.1%) | |
| 1.1% (-0.1%) | 1.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 1.2% (-0.0%) | 1.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.3% (+0.1%) | 1.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.2% (-0.0%) | 2.5% (+1.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
OklahomaMissouri
Texas A&M
Mississippi State
Kentucky
VanderbiltCCG: 40.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
MissouriCCG: 8.3% • Scenario: 13.9%
Data from 2024-10-20
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
39.3%
2.6%Any 1 loss
2.2%
6.0%
2.9%
3.6%
1.4%
0.4%1.2%
1.5%1.0%
0.5%Data from 2024-10-20
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-20