Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
21.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | L22-38 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W27-20 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W21-6 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L6-41 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W30-10 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W27-25 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | L20-30 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:73% | |
| 11 | 11/06 | Win prob:92% | |
| 12 | 11/13 | Win prob:75% | |
| 13 | 11/20 | Win prob:26% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:89% |
Data from 2024-10-20
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 11.8% | 99.4% |
| 6-2 | 43.4% | 22.7% |
| 5-3 | 33.8% | 0.3% |
| 4-4 | 9.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 1.1% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-20
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-20
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 4.4% (-17.3%) | 28.0% (+6.3%) | |
| 30.2% (+8.6%) | 20.6% (-1.1%) | |
| 23.1% (+1.4%) | 21.5% (-0.2%) | |
| 21.5% (-0.2%) | 22.1% (+0.5%) | |
| 21.7% (+0.1%) | 21.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 21.3% (-0.3%) | 23.6% (+1.9%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Ohio
Central Michigan
Kent State
Akron
Toledo
Ball StateCCG: 55.6% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
OhioCCG: 28.0% • Scenario: 73.3%
Data from 2024-10-20
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.4%
11.8%Any 1 loss
22.7%
43.4%42.3%
1.0%40.1%
1.5%
35.4%
4.0%
26.6%
4.3%19.2%
32.6%Data from 2024-10-20
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-20