Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W38-22 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W31-28 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L24-26 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W42-14 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W44-41 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W24-17 | |
| 9 | 10/24 | Win prob:30% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:24% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:43% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:27% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:58% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:12% |
Data from 2024-10-20
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 0.1% | 56.9% |
| 6-2 | 1.8% | 1.9% |
| 5-3 | 10.4% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 29.5% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 38.8% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 19.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-20
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-20
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.2%) | 0.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 5.3% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 0.3% • Scenario: 30.4%
Data from 2024-10-20
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
56.1%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
4.8%
1.0%57.8%
<0.1%4.8%
0.2%4.5%
0.1%2.7%
0.2%0.9%
0.4%Any 2 losses
1.9%
0.4%3.6%
<0.1%2.3%
0.1%2.2%
<0.1%0.7%
0.1%Data from 2024-10-20
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-20