Mountain West Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-10-20
Conference Standings
| T1 |  UNLVUNLV | 2-0 | 6-1 | 75.3% | |
| T1 |  Boise StateBOIS | 2-0 | 5-1 | 65.6% | |
| T1 |  Colorado StateCSU | 2-0 | 4-3 | 9.7% | |
| T1 |  San Diego StateSDSU | 2-0 | 3-3 | 4.7% | |
| 5 |  San José StateSJSU | 3-1 | 5-2 | 21.0% | |
| T6 |  Fresno StateFRES | 2-1 | 4-3 | 21.8% | |
| T6 |  New MexicoUNM | 2-1 | 3-4 | 1.7% | |
| 8 |  WyomingWYO | 1-2 | 1-6 | 0.2% | |
| T9 |  Hawai'iHAW | 0-2 | 2-5 | <0.1% | |
| T9 |  NevadaNEV | 0-2 | 3-5 | <0.1% | |
| T9 |  Air ForceAF | 0-4 | 1-6 | - | |
| T9 |  Utah StateUSU | 0-3 | 1-6 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-10-20
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-10-20
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-20
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 75.3%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 77.1% (+1.8%) | 74.6% (-0.7%) | |
| 77.1% (+1.8%) | 74.1% (-1.1%) | |
| 75.4% (+0.1%) | 75.0% (-0.3%) | |
| 75.0% (-0.3%) | 75.6% (+0.3%) | |
| 75.0% (-0.2%) | 75.6% (+0.3%) | |
| 55.2% (-20.1%) | 93.3% (+18.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Utah StateNew MexicoSan Diego StateSan José StateNevadaUNLVCCG: 96.6% • Scenario: 0.4%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
UNLVCCG: 93.3% • Scenario: 52.7%
Data from 2024-10-20
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 7-0 | 6-1 | 5-2 | 4-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNLVUNLV | 100% | 98.6% | 26.6% | <0.1% | 75.3% |
| Boise StateBOIS | 100% | 86.7% | 11.2% | <0.1% | 65.6% |
| Fresno StateFRES | - | 74.4% | 7.2% | - | 21.8% |
| San José StateSJSU | - | 99.9% | 40.9% | <0.1% | 21.0% |
| Colorado StateCSU | 100% | 41.7% | 1.2% | - | 9.7% |
| San Diego StateSDSU | 100% | 73.0% | 2.2% | - | 4.7% |
| New MexicoUNM | - | 40.0% | 0.3% | - | 1.7% |
| WyomingWYO | - | - | 16.4% | <0.1% | 0.2% |
| Hawai'iHAW | - | - | 30.2% | - | <0.1% |
| NevadaNEV | - | - | 34.5% | - | <0.1% |
| Air ForceAF | - | - | - | - | - |
| Utah StateUSU | - | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2024-10-20
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 7-0 | 6-1 | 5-2 | 4-3 | 3-4 | 2-5 | 1-6 | 0-7 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNLVUNLV(2-0) | 24.1% | 44.9% | 26.0% | 4.7% | 0.4% | <0.1% | - | - | 5.9 |
| Boise StateBOIS(2-0) | 23.0% | 45.7% | 25.9% | 5.0% | 0.4% | <0.1% | - | - | 5.9 |
| Fresno StateFRES(2-1) | - | 24.9% | 45.6% | 24.5% | 4.7% | 0.3% | - | - | 4.9 |
| Colorado StateCSU(2-0) | 2.3% | 16.8% | 34.9% | 31.5% | 12.6% | 1.9% | - | - | 4.6 |
| San José StateSJSU(3-1) | - | 7.8% | 32.1% | 42.1% | 17.9% | - | - | - | 4.3 |
| San Diego StateSDSU(2-0) | 0.2% | 5.1% | 31.4% | 40.7% | 19.4% | 3.1% | - | - | 4.2 |
| New MexicoUNM(2-1) | - | 4.1% | 20.9% | 38.3% | 29.0% | 7.6% | - | - | 3.8 |
| WyomingWYO(1-2) | - | - | 1.4% | 16.1% | 40.2% | 34.2% | 8.1% | - | 2.7 |
| NevadaNEV(0-2) | - | - | <0.1% | 2.1% | 19.4% | 39.8% | 30.6% | 8.1% | 1.8 |
| Utah StateUSU(0-3) | - | - | - | 1.4% | 11.5% | 33.0% | 39.1% | 14.9% | 1.5 |
| Hawai'iHAW(0-2) | - | - | <0.1% | 1.4% | 11.6% | 32.7% | 38.3% | 16.0% | 1.4 |
| Air ForceAF(0-4) | - | - | - | - | 4.7% | 25.9% | 44.8% | 24.6% | 1.1 |
Data from 2024-10-20