Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
75.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W27-7 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W72-14 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W23-20 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W59-14 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | L41-44 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W50-34 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W33-25 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:53% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:93% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:90% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:58% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:93% |
Data from 2024-10-20
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-0 | 24.1% | 100.0% |
| 6-1 | 44.9% | 98.6% |
| 5-2 | 26.0% | 26.6% |
| 4-3 | 4.7% | 0.1% |
| 3-4 | 0.4% | 0% |
| 2-5 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-20
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-20
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 77.1% (+1.8%) | 74.6% (-0.7%) | |
| 77.1% (+1.8%) | 74.1% (-1.1%) | |
| 75.4% (+0.1%) | 75.0% (-0.3%) | |
| 75.0% (-0.3%) | 75.6% (+0.3%) | |
| 75.0% (-0.2%) | 75.6% (+0.3%) | |
| 55.2% (-20.1%) | 93.3% (+18.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Utah State
New Mexico
San Diego State
San José State
NevadaUNLVCCG: 96.6% • Scenario: 0.4%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
UNLVCCG: 93.3% • Scenario: 52.7%
Data from 2024-10-20
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
24.1%Any 1 loss
98.6%
44.9%100.0%
1.7%
99.9%
1.8%99.4%
17.2%99.2%
2.7%
97.6%
21.6%Any 2 losses
26.6%
26.0%66.7%
0.1%49.8%
0.2%49.7%
1.6%48.9%
1.5%48.5%
0.2%44.7%
1.3%37.6%
1.2%29.8%
2.4%29.8%
1.9%17.8%
15.5%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2024-10-20
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-20