Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
53.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W52-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W31-12 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W56-7 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W51-3 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W35-13 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W34-3 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | L15-30 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:98% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:95% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:96% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:97% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:82% |
Data from 2024-10-20
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 70.5% | 74.4% |
| 6-2 | 26.2% | 3.2% |
| 5-3 | 3.1% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-20
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-20
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 53.1% (-0.3%) | 53.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 53.6% (+0.3%) | 53.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 47.6% (-5.7%) | 62.0% (+8.6%) | |
| 52.7% (-0.6%) | 54.0% (+0.7%) | |
| 52.6% (-0.7%) | 53.8% (+0.5%) | |
| 54.5% (+1.2%) | 4.9% (-48.4%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Ole Miss
Missouri
Texas A&M
Mississippi State
KentuckyTexasCCG: 67.2% • Scenario: 1.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Texas A&MTexasCCG: 63.4% • Scenario: 38.8%
Data from 2024-10-20
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
74.4%
70.5%Any 1 loss
3.2%
26.2%11.4%
2.4%
6.8%
1.8%
3.4%
3.0%
2.5%
3.7%1.7%
15.4%Data from 2024-10-20
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-20