Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
34.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | Win prob:90% | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:25% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:48% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:40% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:45% | |
| 7 | 10/08 | Win prob:78% | |
| 7 | 10/14 | Win prob:86% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:58% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:78% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:61% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:57% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:84% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 2.2% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 13.4% | 98.2% |
| 6-2 | 28.4% | 60.9% |
| 5-3 | 30.1% | 6.7% |
| 4-4 | 18.1% | 0.0% |
| 3-5 | 6.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 1.3% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 35.4% (+0.7%) | 34.3% (-0.4%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 35.4% • Scenario: 35.7%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 35.4% • Scenario: 35.7%
Data from 2025-08-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.2%Any 1 loss
98.7%
1.7%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.3%
0.1%97.2%
0.1%96.5%
0.5%Any 2 losses
86.9%
7.2%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.5%
0.2%99.3%
0.1%99.2%
0.1%99.1%
0.1%98.8%
<0.1%98.4%
<0.1%98.3%
0.2%98.2%
0.2%97.3%
<0.1%96.7%
0.6%96.7%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%96.4%
0.8%96.2%
0.6%95.2%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%92.0%
<0.1%86.1%
<0.1%86.1%
<0.1%79.2%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.5%
0.1%73.9%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%67.9%
<0.1%67.9%
<0.1%67.7%
0.3%66.0%
0.1%64.9%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%59.7%
0.1%56.7%
<0.1%55.4%
0.4%53.5%
<0.1%43.0%
0.4%Any 3 losses
67.2%
16.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.5%
0.2%99.5%
0.2%99.4%
0.2%99.0%
0.1%98.8%
<0.1%98.7%
0.2%98.5%
0.1%98.5%
0.8%98.4%
0.2%98.2%
<0.1%98.1%
0.7%98.0%
0.2%97.9%
<0.1%97.8%
0.2%97.5%
0.9%95.2%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%93.0%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.7%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%83.9%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.2%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.5%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.2%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%78.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.3%
0.1%77.3%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.8%
0.2%76.5%
0.2%76.0%
0.1%75.6%
<0.1%75.2%
0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.4%
<0.1%73.5%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%72.9%
0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%72.2%
0.1%71.9%
<0.1%71.3%
0.2%70.2%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.6%
<0.1%69.2%
0.1%68.3%
0.1%67.9%
<0.1%67.9%
<0.1%67.5%
0.5%67.0%
0.4%66.9%
0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.6%
<0.1%65.5%
<0.1%65.3%
0.1%65.0%
0.1%64.9%
0.4%63.6%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.0%
<0.1%62.6%
0.1%62.1%
<0.1%62.0%
<0.1%61.3%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.6%
0.2%58.3%
<0.1%58.1%
<0.1%57.7%
<0.1%57.6%
0.5%57.3%
0.1%57.2%
0.2%57.0%
0.2%56.5%
0.2%56.0%
0.4%55.0%
<0.1%53.1%
0.6%52.9%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.5%
<0.1%42.4%
0.4%40.3%
0.6%40.0%
<0.1%39.4%
0.4%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%16.3%
0.1%14.6%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.0%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.2%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.5%
0.1%8.4%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.6%
0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
0.3%5.5%
<0.1%5.4%
0.3%4.9%
0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
0.2%4.2%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.1%
0.1%1.7%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
44.4%
22.8%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.6%
0.2%98.9%
<0.1%98.9%
<0.1%98.6%
0.3%98.1%
0.3%97.8%
<0.1%97.7%
<0.1%97.6%
1.0%95.5%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%92.6%
<0.1%90.4%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.0%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.0%
<0.1%82.0%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.5%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%81.2%
0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.2%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%78.7%
0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.1%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.8%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%76.1%
0.1%76.0%
<0.1%76.0%
<0.1%75.9%
<0.1%75.5%
<0.1%75.1%
0.2%75.0%
0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.0%
<0.1%73.5%
<0.1%73.2%
0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.5%
<0.1%72.4%
<0.1%72.2%
0.2%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.7%
0.2%70.3%
<0.1%70.2%
0.3%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%68.2%
0.5%67.4%
<0.1%67.4%
0.1%67.0%
0.6%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.9%
0.1%65.5%
<0.1%65.4%
0.2%65.2%
<0.1%65.2%
0.1%64.7%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%64.5%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%64.1%
<0.1%63.7%
0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.3%
0.4%61.0%
<0.1%60.7%
<0.1%60.5%
<0.1%60.4%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.5%
0.1%59.5%
0.1%59.4%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%58.1%
0.2%57.8%
0.3%57.5%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.7%
0.1%54.8%
0.5%54.7%
0.3%54.4%
0.2%54.2%
0.6%53.3%
<0.1%50.9%
<0.1%50.8%
<0.1%50.1%
0.7%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.0%
0.5%43.5%
<0.1%41.0%
<0.1%40.8%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.5%
0.6%34.9%
0.7%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.9%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.9%
<0.1%18.9%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.8%
0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.2%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.9%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.3%
0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.0%
0.1%8.8%
0.1%8.8%
0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.5%
0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%7.8%
<0.1%7.8%
0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.0%
0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.6%
<0.1%6.5%
0.3%6.4%
0.2%6.3%
0.3%6.3%
<0.1%6.2%
0.1%6.1%
<0.1%6.1%
0.1%5.9%
0.2%5.9%
0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.5%
0.4%5.4%
<0.1%5.4%
0.3%5.4%
0.1%5.2%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.9%
0.1%4.8%
0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
0.4%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%3.8%
0.2%3.7%
<0.1%3.5%
0.3%3.4%
0.2%3.3%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.6%
0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.4%
0.3%2.3%
0.4%2.1%
0.3%Data from 2025-08-22