Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
27.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | Win prob:90% | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:28% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:64% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:60% | |
| 6 | 10/03 | Win prob:65% | |
| 8 | 10/15 | Win prob:25% | |
| 9 | 10/22 | Win prob:87% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:42% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:71% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:64% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:57% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:87% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 1.5% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 9.7% | 98.3% |
| 6-2 | 24.7% | 59.9% |
| 5-3 | 31.3% | 6.1% |
| 4-4 | 21.9% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 8.7% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 2.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 28.0% (+0.3%) | 27.6% (-0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 28.0% • Scenario: 35.7%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 28.0% • Scenario: 35.7%
Data from 2025-08-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.1%Any 1 loss
98.6%
1.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.8%
<0.1%98.8%
<0.1%97.9%
0.2%96.4%
0.4%Any 2 losses
85.7%
6.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.6%
0.2%99.2%
0.1%99.0%
0.2%98.9%
0.2%98.6%
<0.1%98.3%
0.1%97.4%
1.1%97.3%
0.4%97.3%
0.3%97.0%
0.2%91.7%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%84.4%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.5%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.7%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.0%
0.3%71.1%
<0.1%69.0%
<0.1%68.7%
0.2%67.0%
0.1%61.3%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.6%
<0.1%59.4%
0.2%59.4%
0.1%55.7%
<0.1%53.4%
0.2%50.0%
<0.1%39.7%
0.5%Any 3 losses
60.7%
15.8%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.4%
0.2%99.3%
0.1%99.0%
0.1%99.0%
0.1%98.9%
<0.1%98.7%
0.1%98.6%
<0.1%98.5%
0.1%98.2%
0.3%98.2%
0.8%98.1%
0.4%98.0%
<0.1%97.9%
0.6%97.3%
<0.1%96.2%
0.1%95.0%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%89.1%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.0%
<0.1%86.1%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.2%
0.1%82.8%
<0.1%82.5%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.7%
0.1%78.7%
0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.3%
<0.1%77.3%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.1%
<0.1%75.9%
0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.9%
0.2%74.2%
<0.1%73.6%
<0.1%73.5%
<0.1%73.4%
<0.1%73.2%
<0.1%73.1%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%71.8%
0.1%71.2%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%69.1%
0.1%69.0%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.5%
0.7%67.4%
0.6%66.8%
0.2%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.7%
0.2%65.2%
0.3%65.0%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%64.5%
<0.1%64.3%
0.3%64.3%
<0.1%62.7%
<0.1%62.6%
<0.1%61.3%
<0.1%60.8%
0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.8%
0.2%59.6%
0.1%58.8%
0.4%58.8%
<0.1%58.6%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.0%
0.2%56.4%
0.1%55.0%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%51.8%
0.5%51.6%
0.3%50.5%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%41.5%
1.4%41.0%
0.4%40.1%
0.3%40.0%
<0.1%39.4%
<0.1%37.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.6%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.4%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%12.2%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.0%
0.1%8.2%
<0.1%8.2%
0.1%8.0%
0.1%7.8%
0.1%7.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.3%
0.4%4.2%
0.3%4.1%
<0.1%4.0%
0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.5%
0.3%1.7%
0.2%Any 4 losses
35.5%
21.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.0%
0.1%97.7%
<0.1%97.7%
<0.1%97.0%
0.4%96.8%
0.2%96.4%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.2%
0.1%85.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.5%
0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.7%
0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.3%
<0.1%77.3%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.8%
<0.1%76.7%
<0.1%76.7%
0.1%75.4%
<0.1%75.3%
0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
0.1%74.1%
<0.1%73.9%
<0.1%73.9%
<0.1%73.8%
<0.1%73.3%
0.4%72.9%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%71.9%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.6%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%69.0%
0.5%68.4%
<0.1%67.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.0%
0.3%65.6%
<0.1%64.4%
0.2%64.3%
<0.1%63.9%
0.4%63.4%
0.1%63.3%
0.2%63.2%
<0.1%62.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.3%
0.2%61.9%
<0.1%61.2%
<0.1%61.2%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%61.0%
<0.1%60.7%
<0.1%60.5%
<0.1%60.5%
<0.1%60.4%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.1%
<0.1%59.1%
<0.1%58.1%
<0.1%57.4%
0.2%56.4%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%54.5%
0.3%53.9%
0.1%53.6%
0.4%53.3%
0.3%53.3%
0.1%52.4%
<0.1%51.0%
0.1%50.0%
0.2%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.5%
0.1%46.7%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%45.1%
0.8%44.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.8%
1.1%42.4%
0.1%41.3%
<0.1%40.8%
0.2%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.0%
0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.9%
0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.4%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.7%
0.4%10.3%
<0.1%10.2%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
0.2%9.7%
<0.1%9.6%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.9%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.6%
0.2%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.2%
<0.1%7.8%
0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.3%
0.4%7.2%
<0.1%7.1%
0.3%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.9%
0.2%6.9%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.4%
<0.1%6.4%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.2%
<0.1%6.1%
0.3%6.0%
0.1%5.9%
0.1%5.8%
0.2%5.8%
0.2%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.0%
0.2%4.7%
0.3%4.7%
0.2%4.4%
0.8%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
0.1%4.1%
<0.1%4.0%
0.2%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
0.2%3.7%
0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.2%
0.6%3.1%
0.9%3.1%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.7%
0.7%2.7%
0.2%2.6%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.4%
0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
0.2%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2025-08-22