Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | Win prob:20% | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:90% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:2% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:51% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:34% | |
| 7 | 10/08 | Win prob:22% | |
| 8 | 10/15 | Win prob:28% | |
| 9 | 10/28 | Win prob:37% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:12% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:28% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:56% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:13% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0% | 0% |
| 7-1 | 0.1% | 98.1% |
| 6-2 | 0.5% | 66.7% |
| 5-3 | 3.4% | 7.0% |
| 4-4 | 12.0% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 25.5% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 31.9% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 20.9% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 5.7% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 0.7% (+0.0%) | 0.6% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 0.7% • Scenario: 35.7%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 0.7% • Scenario: 35.7%
Data from 2025-08-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Any 2 losses
<0.1%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
73.8%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
49.5%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.2%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%Data from 2025-08-22