Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
17.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/23 | Win prob:64% | |
| 1 | 8/30 | Win prob:90% | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:42% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:78% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:58% | |
| 6 | 10/03 | Win prob:35% | |
| 7 | 10/14 | Win prob:68% | |
| 8 | 10/21 | Win prob:49% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:81% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:83% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:12% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:20% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.6% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 5.3% | 96.9% |
| 6-2 | 17.7% | 56.3% |
| 5-3 | 29.5% | 5.4% |
| 4-4 | 27.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 14.4% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 4.3% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.7% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 7.1% (-10.1%) | 22.8% (+5.6%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 22.8% • Scenario: 64.3%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 22.8% • Scenario: 64.3%
Data from 2025-08-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
98.9%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.6%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
87.9%
2.6%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.2%
0.1%98.8%
<0.1%98.1%
0.1%96.5%
<0.1%95.5%
0.6%95.4%
0.3%94.1%
<0.1%91.7%
0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.7%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%60.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.8%
<0.1%45.8%
<0.1%44.1%
0.1%41.5%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
62.8%
9.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.0%
0.2%97.8%
0.1%97.5%
0.4%97.1%
<0.1%96.2%
<0.1%95.9%
<0.1%95.7%
0.8%94.4%
0.2%94.0%
<0.1%90.7%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.5%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%80.8%
<0.1%80.4%
<0.1%78.3%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.7%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.6%
<0.1%71.2%
<0.1%70.8%
<0.1%70.4%
<0.1%70.2%
<0.1%69.5%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.4%
0.1%67.7%
0.1%67.5%
0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.8%
<0.1%65.4%
0.2%65.3%
0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.4%
0.1%61.0%
<0.1%60.0%
0.3%59.3%
<0.1%59.2%
0.3%59.1%
0.3%53.6%
<0.1%53.3%
0.4%51.5%
0.6%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.4%
<0.1%47.3%
0.1%45.5%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%40.2%
0.2%38.9%
<0.1%38.4%
1.1%35.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
33.2%
18.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.2%
<0.1%97.7%
0.3%96.5%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%93.4%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%82.6%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.8%
<0.1%78.3%
0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.3%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.4%
<0.1%74.2%
<0.1%73.9%
<0.1%73.8%
<0.1%73.0%
<0.1%73.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.2%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.5%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%67.9%
0.2%67.8%
0.2%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.3%
0.2%65.0%
<0.1%64.8%
0.2%64.5%
0.4%64.3%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.9%
0.1%61.4%
0.3%60.9%
0.2%60.9%
<0.1%60.8%
<0.1%60.7%
0.1%60.5%
0.4%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.4%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.9%
0.6%57.5%
0.5%54.9%
0.1%54.2%
<0.1%52.8%
<0.1%52.6%
<0.1%51.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.5%
0.2%47.5%
<0.1%46.2%
0.9%46.2%
<0.1%45.0%
<0.1%44.5%
0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.5%
0.3%43.0%
1.5%42.9%
<0.1%42.1%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.3%
<0.1%36.2%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%26.1%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.9%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.7%
0.1%9.5%
0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.0%
0.2%8.0%
<0.1%7.7%
0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.4%
0.2%7.3%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
0.2%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.7%
0.2%6.7%
0.1%6.6%
<0.1%6.5%
0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.2%
0.5%6.0%
<0.1%5.9%
0.2%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
0.2%5.7%
0.3%5.6%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.0%
0.4%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
0.1%4.3%
0.3%4.2%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
0.3%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.8%
0.2%3.7%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
0.6%3.5%
0.8%3.3%
<0.1%3.3%
0.1%3.3%
0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.1%
1.2%2.7%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%Data from 2025-08-22