Conference USA Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-08-22
Conference Standings
| T1 |  Jacksonville StateJXST | 0-0 | 0-0 | 76.3% | |
| T1 |  LibertyLIB | 0-0 | 0-0 | 34.7% | |
| T1 |  DelawareDEL | 0-0 | 0-0 | 27.7% | |
| T1 |  Western KentuckyWKU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 17.2% | |
| T1 |  Louisiana TechLT | 0-0 | 0-0 | 14.5% | |
| T1 |  Missouri StateMOST | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9.2% | |
| T1 |  Sam HoustonSHSU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8.2% | |
| T1 |  Florida InternationalFIU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6.8% | |
| T1 |  Kennesaw StateKENN | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2.3% | |
| T1 |  New Mexico StateNMSU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1.9% | |
| T1 |  Middle TennesseeMTSU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0.7% | |
| T1 |  UTEPUTEP | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0.7% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 76.3%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 76.9% (+0.6%) | 75.9% (-0.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Sam HoustonCCG: 76.9% • Scenario: 35.7%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Sam HoustonCCG: 76.9% • Scenario: 35.7%
Data from 2025-08-22
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville StateJXST | 100% | 99.0% | 70.6% | 9.1% | - | 76.3% |
| LibertyLIB | 100% | 98.2% | 60.9% | 6.7% | <0.1% | 34.7% |
| DelawareDEL | 100% | 98.3% | 59.9% | 6.1% | - | 27.7% |
| Western KentuckyWKU | 100% | 96.9% | 56.3% | 5.4% | - | 17.2% |
| Louisiana TechLT | 100% | 96.0% | 55.1% | 5.4% | - | 14.5% |
| Missouri StateMOST | 100% | 94.3% | 50.7% | 4.6% | - | 9.2% |
| Sam HoustonSHSU | 100% | 96.9% | 55.4% | 5.5% | - | 8.2% |
| Florida InternationalFIU | 100% | 98.4% | 63.8% | 6.2% | - | 6.8% |
| Kennesaw StateKENN | 100% | 97.4% | 54.5% | 4.5% | - | 2.3% |
| New Mexico StateNMSU | 100% | 94.6% | 51.2% | 4.5% | - | 1.9% |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU | - | 100% | 59.1% | 6.5% | - | 0.7% |
| UTEPUTEP | - | 98.1% | 66.7% | 7.0% | - | 0.7% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville StateJXST(0-0) | 19.7% | 36.0% | 28.1% | 12.3% | 3.3% | 0.5% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.5 |
| LibertyLIB(0-0) | 2.2% | 13.4% | 28.4% | 30.1% | 18.1% | 6.3% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 5.3 |
| DelawareDEL(0-0) | 1.5% | 9.7% | 24.7% | 31.3% | 21.9% | 8.7% | 2.0% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 5.0 |
| Western KentuckyWKU(0-0) | 0.6% | 5.3% | 17.7% | 29.5% | 27.6% | 14.4% | 4.3% | 0.7% | <0.1% | 4.6 |
| Louisiana TechLT(0-0) | 0.6% | 4.6% | 14.8% | 26.0% | 27.4% | 18.1% | 7.1% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 4.3 |
| Missouri StateMOST(0-0) | 0.3% | 2.7% | 10.6% | 22.4% | 28.6% | 22.3% | 10.2% | 2.7% | 0.3% | 4.0 |
| Sam HoustonSHSU(0-0) | 0.2% | 1.9% | 9.0% | 21.3% | 29.3% | 23.9% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 0.3% | 3.9 |
| Florida InternationalFIU(0-0) | 0.1% | 1.4% | 6.6% | 17.3% | 27.7% | 26.7% | 15.1% | 4.6% | 0.6% | 3.6 |
| Kennesaw StateKENN(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.3% | 2.7% | 10.8% | 24.1% | 30.7% | 21.9% | 8.3% | 1.2% | 3.1 |
| New Mexico StateNMSU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.3% | 2.3% | 9.2% | 21.5% | 30.2% | 24.2% | 10.5% | 1.8% | 3.0 |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.6% | 3.6% | 12.4% | 25.7% | 31.3% | 20.4% | 5.9% | 2.3 |
| UTEPUTEP(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.5% | 3.4% | 12.0% | 25.5% | 31.9% | 20.9% | 5.7% | 2.3 |
Data from 2025-08-22