Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
2.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | Win prob:26% | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:3% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:90% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:47% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:63% | |
| 7 | 10/09 | Win prob:40% | |
| 8 | 10/21 | Win prob:29% | |
| 9 | 10/28 | Win prob:63% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:45% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:8% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:48% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:16% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.3% | 97.4% |
| 6-2 | 2.7% | 54.5% |
| 5-3 | 10.8% | 4.5% |
| 4-4 | 24.1% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 30.7% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 21.9% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 8.3% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 1.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2.4% (+0.1%) | 2.2% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 2.4% • Scenario: 35.7%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 2.4% • Scenario: 35.7%
Data from 2025-08-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Any 2 losses
100.0%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
65.6%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.8%
<0.1%96.3%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%35.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
36.7%
2.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%94.3%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.3%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%67.9%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%61.7%
<0.1%60.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.5%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.8%
0.2%41.7%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.9%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.6%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.1%
0.2%4.8%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
0.1%4.1%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%Data from 2025-08-22