Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
62.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/23 | Win prob:90% | |
| 1 | 8/29 | Win prob:80% | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:84% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:62% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:76% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:81% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:50% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:89% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:78% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:83% | |
| 13 | 11/21 | Win prob:95% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:84% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 13.9% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 33.7% | 95.8% |
| 6-2 | 31.7% | 50.4% |
| 5-3 | 15.4% | 2.9% |
| 4-4 | 4.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.8% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 62.5% (-0.2%) | 62.9% (+0.3%) | |
| 62.3% (-0.3%) | 62.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 62.8% (+0.1%) | 62.7% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Hawai'i
Kansas
Idaho StateCCG: 63.3% • Scenario: 3.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Hawai'iCCG: 62.9% • Scenario: 43.0%
Data from 2025-08-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
5.1%Any 1 loss
97.2%
18.7%
100.0%
3.2%
100.0%
1.0%
100.0%
1.3%100.0%
0.6%98.9%
0.3%
98.4%
1.0%
98.1%
0.6%
97.9%
1.2%
97.9%
1.6%
97.0%
1.7%
97.0%
1.1%
93.3%
5.2%Any 2 losses
78.2%
28.8%100.0%
0.8%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.6%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.4%
0.2%99.1%
0.2%99.1%
0.1%98.8%
0.2%98.7%
0.4%98.4%
0.4%98.4%
<0.1%98.3%
0.2%97.8%
0.6%97.6%
0.9%97.6%
<0.1%97.6%
0.8%97.6%
0.1%97.5%
0.3%97.3%
0.1%97.3%
0.4%97.2%
0.3%97.0%
0.6%97.0%
0.2%96.7%
0.2%96.6%
1.0%96.4%
0.1%96.4%
0.3%95.9%
0.2%95.6%
0.3%95.4%
1.4%95.1%
0.6%95.0%
0.2%94.3%
1.0%93.8%
3.1%74.6%
<0.1%67.0%
0.2%66.8%
0.3%66.2%
<0.1%65.5%
0.3%63.6%
0.1%62.1%
0.3%61.5%
0.1%61.0%
0.4%60.9%
0.2%60.8%
0.2%60.1%
0.2%59.7%
<0.1%59.7%
0.5%57.9%
0.2%57.8%
0.3%57.2%
0.2%57.1%
<0.1%56.4%
0.3%55.6%
<0.1%54.3%
0.4%51.7%
0.7%51.0%
0.9%48.7%
0.3%47.4%
1.7%47.0%
1.5%41.6%
1.3%40.6%
1.1%Any 3 losses
50.1%
25.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.0%
0.1%98.9%
<0.1%98.8%
<0.1%97.8%
<0.1%97.8%
0.2%97.6%
<0.1%97.5%
<0.1%97.5%
<0.1%97.4%
<0.1%97.2%
0.1%97.1%
0.2%97.1%
<0.1%97.1%
<0.1%97.0%
0.2%96.9%
<0.1%96.8%
<0.1%96.8%
<0.1%96.5%
<0.1%96.3%
0.2%96.1%
0.1%96.0%
0.1%95.9%
0.2%95.8%
0.3%95.6%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%94.9%
0.3%94.6%
0.1%94.2%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%94.0%
0.1%93.9%
0.6%93.2%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.7%
0.8%92.2%
0.4%90.7%
0.1%90.3%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.0%
<0.1%75.6%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%72.5%
<0.1%72.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.8%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%69.0%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.6%
<0.1%68.4%
0.1%68.0%
<0.1%68.0%
<0.1%67.6%
<0.1%67.5%
<0.1%67.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.5%
0.2%66.3%
<0.1%66.0%
0.1%65.5%
<0.1%65.3%
0.1%64.6%
<0.1%63.9%
0.1%63.4%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%62.8%
<0.1%62.8%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.3%
<0.1%62.2%
<0.1%62.0%
0.1%61.3%
0.1%61.3%
0.3%60.6%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.8%
0.1%58.6%
0.1%57.5%
<0.1%56.7%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.4%
<0.1%55.3%
0.1%55.3%
<0.1%55.2%
<0.1%54.8%
0.3%54.8%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.4%
0.1%54.2%
0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.8%
0.2%53.7%
<0.1%53.1%
0.1%52.4%
0.2%52.0%
0.1%51.9%
0.7%51.7%
0.2%51.7%
0.2%51.5%
0.1%51.4%
0.2%50.3%
0.4%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.7%
0.1%49.4%
<0.1%48.8%
<0.1%48.3%
<0.1%47.2%
<0.1%47.0%
<0.1%46.8%
0.3%46.3%
0.9%46.2%
<0.1%45.3%
0.2%45.1%
0.4%44.8%
0.1%44.7%
0.2%44.7%
0.3%43.8%
0.2%43.1%
0.2%42.8%
0.4%41.7%
<0.1%40.2%
0.8%39.9%
0.3%39.8%
0.3%39.5%
1.0%39.1%
0.1%39.0%
0.7%38.9%
0.3%35.8%
0.3%34.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.9%
0.2%4.8%
0.1%4.4%
0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.6%
0.3%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
0.2%3.3%
0.3%3.1%
0.5%3.1%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%2.9%
0.3%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.5%
0.4%2.4%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.0%
0.3%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
0.1%1.7%
0.4%1.4%
0.2%1.4%
0.4%1.2%
<0.1%1.1%
0.2%0.7%
0.3%Any 4 losses
34.0%
10.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.6%
<0.1%96.9%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%95.1%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%92.6%
0.2%91.9%
<0.1%90.4%
<0.1%90.3%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.9%
<0.1%65.5%
<0.1%65.0%
<0.1%63.3%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.3%
<0.1%60.9%
<0.1%60.6%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.6%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%58.6%
<0.1%58.6%
<0.1%58.6%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.9%
<0.1%57.8%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%56.2%
<0.1%56.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.4%
<0.1%55.3%
<0.1%55.3%
<0.1%55.3%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%52.0%
0.1%52.0%
<0.1%51.7%
<0.1%51.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.9%
<0.1%48.8%
<0.1%48.6%
<0.1%48.4%
<0.1%48.1%
0.2%47.7%
<0.1%47.7%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%46.9%
<0.1%46.1%
0.2%45.5%
<0.1%45.0%
0.1%44.8%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.1%
<0.1%44.0%
0.2%43.4%
0.2%43.4%
0.3%43.3%
0.1%42.9%
0.3%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.1%
<0.1%42.0%
<0.1%41.9%
<0.1%41.2%
0.1%41.1%
0.2%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.7%
0.1%38.2%
<0.1%38.1%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.5%
0.1%36.0%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%35.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.6%
<0.1%30.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.9%
0.2%4.8%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.7%
0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.4%
0.1%3.2%
0.2%3.1%
0.3%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.6%
0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
0.2%2.2%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.6%
0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.3%
0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.8%
0.2%Data from 2025-08-22