Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
22.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/23 | Win prob:73% | |
| 1 | 8/29 | Win prob:90% | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:41% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:78% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:77% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:53% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:51% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:53% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:88% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:68% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:44% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:58% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 1.4% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 7.7% | 97.0% |
| 7-2 | 19.9% | 59.6% |
| 6-3 | 27.6% | 5.6% |
| 5-4 | 24.4% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 13.4% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 4.6% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.9% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 22.3% (+0.1%) | 22.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 22.6% (+0.3%) | 22.1% (-0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 22.6% • Scenario: 12.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 22.6% • Scenario: 43.8%
Data from 2025-08-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.4%Any 1 loss
97.8%
2.7%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.5%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%98.7%
0.3%97.9%
<0.1%97.6%
0.3%96.8%
<0.1%96.7%
0.4%96.3%
0.2%96.3%
0.3%94.4%
0.2%Any 2 losses
76.6%
9.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.4%
0.2%98.8%
0.2%98.5%
<0.1%98.3%
0.2%97.7%
0.1%97.7%
<0.1%97.4%
0.5%97.2%
<0.1%97.1%
0.2%97.1%
0.7%96.6%
0.1%96.6%
0.4%96.4%
0.4%96.4%
0.4%95.6%
0.1%95.5%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%87.9%
<0.1%82.8%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%80.4%
<0.1%78.1%
<0.1%74.6%
0.2%73.3%
<0.1%72.4%
0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.3%
0.1%67.9%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.0%
<0.1%66.0%
<0.1%65.5%
<0.1%64.8%
0.1%64.2%
0.1%63.9%
0.3%62.5%
0.2%62.2%
0.1%60.9%
<0.1%60.3%
<0.1%59.8%
0.3%59.8%
<0.1%59.3%
0.2%59.3%
<0.1%58.9%
0.1%58.8%
0.4%56.7%
0.3%56.5%
0.4%53.3%
0.3%52.1%
0.2%51.4%
0.2%48.6%
0.4%47.3%
0.3%Any 3 losses
42.4%
19.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.2%
0.1%97.5%
0.2%97.1%
0.1%97.0%
<0.1%96.8%
0.2%96.1%
<0.1%95.9%
<0.1%95.0%
0.3%95.0%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%93.9%
0.2%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.5%
<0.1%79.5%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.3%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.8%
<0.1%76.4%
<0.1%75.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.2%
<0.1%73.9%
<0.1%73.5%
<0.1%73.4%
<0.1%72.7%
0.1%70.3%
<0.1%70.3%
<0.1%69.1%
0.1%68.8%
0.1%68.7%
0.2%68.4%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%68.1%
<0.1%67.9%
0.2%67.9%
<0.1%67.7%
<0.1%67.2%
0.1%67.1%
0.2%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.9%
<0.1%65.2%
<0.1%64.9%
0.5%64.9%
0.3%64.7%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%63.9%
0.1%63.3%
<0.1%63.0%
<0.1%62.7%
0.1%62.5%
0.4%61.5%
<0.1%61.3%
0.2%61.1%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%60.9%
<0.1%60.6%
<0.1%60.3%
0.2%60.0%
<0.1%59.3%
0.3%59.1%
0.4%58.8%
<0.1%58.6%
0.6%58.0%
0.2%57.6%
0.1%57.6%
0.3%57.4%
0.1%57.4%
0.2%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.6%
0.2%56.6%
0.7%56.4%
0.1%56.3%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%54.2%
<0.1%54.1%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%52.2%
<0.1%51.8%
<0.1%51.1%
<0.1%50.6%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.6%
0.1%49.0%
0.5%48.4%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%46.0%
0.6%45.5%
0.3%45.5%
<0.1%45.1%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%36.2%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.3%
<0.1%12.2%
0.2%11.1%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.3%
0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.6%
<0.1%9.2%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.7%
0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%7.8%
0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.3%
0.1%7.2%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.0%
0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.6%
0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.2%
0.1%5.9%
0.4%5.8%
0.2%5.7%
<0.1%5.6%
0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%4.9%
0.3%4.9%
<0.1%4.8%
0.4%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.0%
0.4%3.6%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
0.2%3.5%
<0.1%3.3%
0.1%2.9%
0.3%2.9%
<0.1%2.7%
0.2%2.6%
0.1%2.6%
0.2%2.6%
0.2%2.5%
0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
0.3%2.0%
0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.1%
0.3%1.0%
0.2%Any 4 losses
18.2%
17.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.3%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.1%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.2%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.6%
<0.1%69.6%
<0.1%68.6%
0.2%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.2%
<0.1%65.1%
<0.1%64.1%
0.1%63.8%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.2%
0.2%63.2%
<0.1%63.1%
<0.1%63.0%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.2%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%60.9%
<0.1%60.9%
<0.1%60.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.6%
<0.1%59.5%
<0.1%58.3%
0.1%58.3%
<0.1%58.0%
<0.1%57.3%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.8%
<0.1%55.0%
0.1%54.4%
<0.1%54.2%
<0.1%53.6%
0.3%53.3%
<0.1%53.1%
<0.1%52.4%
<0.1%51.5%
<0.1%51.3%
<0.1%50.9%
0.2%50.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.5%
0.1%48.6%
0.2%46.7%
<0.1%46.6%
<0.1%46.4%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%44.5%
0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.1%
<0.1%14.5%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.3%
0.2%13.2%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.7%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.3%
<0.1%9.2%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.5%
0.2%8.4%
0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.8%
0.2%7.8%
0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.3%
0.2%7.2%
<0.1%7.2%
0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.6%
<0.1%6.6%
0.2%6.5%
0.3%6.4%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%6.0%
<0.1%6.0%
0.3%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.6%
0.2%5.6%
0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.4%
0.5%5.3%
0.4%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.2%
0.1%5.0%
0.2%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
0.2%4.9%
0.5%4.9%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
0.3%4.5%
<0.1%4.4%
0.2%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
0.1%4.3%
0.3%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.1%
0.2%4.1%
0.1%4.0%
0.5%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
0.5%3.9%
0.3%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.3%
0.1%3.2%
0.4%3.1%
0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.7%
0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.4%
0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.1%
0.3%2.0%
0.1%2.0%
0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.7%
0.2%1.7%
0.4%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%Data from 2025-08-22