Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
5.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | Win prob:62% | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:90% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:24% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:16% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:24% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:45% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:34% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:60% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:51% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:25% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:70% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:70% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 1.5% | 94.3% |
| 6-2 | 7.8% | 45.8% |
| 5-3 | 19.7% | 2.6% |
| 4-4 | 29.1% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 25.4% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 12.6% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 3.5% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 5.7% (+0.1%) | 5.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 5.7% (+0.1%) | 5.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 5.8% (+0.1%) | 5.6% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 6.0% • Scenario: 4.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 5.7% • Scenario: 57.0%
Data from 2025-08-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
100.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
83.8%
0.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%93.2%
<0.1%92.6%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
57.4%
2.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.0%
<0.1%96.6%
<0.1%96.1%
<0.1%96.0%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.7%
0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%88.8%
0.2%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%76.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.0%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.1%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.3%
<0.1%54.2%
<0.1%54.2%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%52.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.1%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%44.8%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%43.6%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.5%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%36.1%
<0.1%35.9%
<0.1%34.6%
<0.1%33.7%
0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.7%
<0.1%30.5%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.0%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
32.0%
6.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.5%
<0.1%96.2%
<0.1%92.1%
<0.1%90.1%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.6%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.7%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%67.3%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%64.0%
<0.1%63.9%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.4%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%58.5%
<0.1%57.8%
0.1%56.5%
<0.1%55.3%
0.1%54.8%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%52.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.2%
0.3%47.6%
<0.1%46.9%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.2%
<0.1%43.7%
0.2%43.2%
<0.1%42.7%
0.3%42.4%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%40.7%
<0.1%40.4%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.9%
<0.1%37.9%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.3%
<0.1%36.2%
0.2%35.9%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%34.8%
0.2%33.7%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.1%
<0.1%32.0%
<0.1%28.5%
0.5%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.4%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%3.6%
0.2%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.1%
0.1%3.0%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.5%
0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.2%
0.2%2.0%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
0.1%1.2%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.7%
0.3%Data from 2025-08-22