Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
3.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | Win prob:90% | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:59% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:79% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:45% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:97% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:41% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:47% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:62% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:49% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:83% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:41% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:52% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.5% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 3.6% | 51.8% |
| 6-2 | 12.7% | 5.4% |
| 5-3 | 24.2% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 28.5% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 20.0% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 8.5% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 1.9% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|
Data from 2025-08-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.2%Any 1 loss
58.0%
1.7%
100.0%
0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
65.8%
0.2%
53.7%
0.2%
53.6%
0.1%
52.8%
0.3%
48.7%
0.2%
46.3%
0.2%
46.3%
0.3%
34.2%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
17.3%
6.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%62.3%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%59.0%
<0.1%58.8%
0.2%58.5%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.5%
0.1%56.0%
<0.1%56.0%
0.2%55.6%
<0.1%54.9%
<0.1%53.1%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.8%
0.2%46.2%
0.1%43.2%
0.1%41.3%
<0.1%40.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.7%
<0.1%35.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%13.9%
0.1%10.4%
0.3%10.2%
0.2%9.2%
0.1%8.7%
0.3%8.3%
<0.1%7.6%
0.1%7.4%
0.2%7.1%
0.2%7.1%
0.1%5.3%
0.2%5.1%
0.3%5.1%
0.3%4.8%
0.2%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
0.3%4.6%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.8%
0.3%3.4%
0.2%3.2%
0.3%2.3%
<0.1%1.8%
0.1%1.7%
0.2%1.5%
0.3%1.0%
0.4%Any 3 losses
10.0%
5.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.6%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%55.8%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%51.2%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.5%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%43.5%
<0.1%41.9%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.2%
<0.1%14.7%
<0.1%11.1%
0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.3%
0.2%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.0%
<0.1%8.8%
0.2%8.7%
<0.1%8.3%
0.1%7.8%
0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.5%
0.1%7.4%
0.2%7.3%
<0.1%7.2%
0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.6%
<0.1%6.5%
0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
0.2%6.1%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.5%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.1%
0.1%5.0%
0.2%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
0.2%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.1%
0.2%4.1%
0.1%4.1%
0.1%4.1%
0.2%4.0%
0.2%3.9%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%2.5%
0.2%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%1.9%
0.3%1.8%
<0.1%1.7%
0.2%1.5%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
8.8%
1.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.8%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.6%
<0.1%6.4%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%Data from 2025-08-22