American Athletic Conference

American Athletic Conference Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-10-26

American Athletic ConferenceConference Standings

T1NavyNAVY5-07-025.4%
T1TulaneTULN3-06-136.8%
T3South FloridaUSF3-16-243.8%
T3MemphisMEM3-17-143.6%
T3North TexasUNT3-17-142.8%
T3TempleTEM3-15-30.6%
7East CarolinaECU2-14-36.3%
T8ArmyARMY2-33-4-
T8FL AtlanticFAU2-33-5-
10UT San AntonioUTSA1-23-40.8%
T11RiceRICE1-34-4-
T11UABUAB1-33-4-
T13CharlotteCLT0-51-7-
T13TulsaTLSA0-52-6-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-10-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely American Athletic Conference CCG Matchups

115.8%
MemphisMEM
vs
USFSouth Florida
212.9%
North TexasUNT
vs
USFSouth Florida
311.5%
MemphisMEM
vs
UNTNorth Texas
410.5%
North TexasUNT
vs
TULNTulane
510.0%
South FloridaUSF
vs
TULNTulane
68.1%
MemphisMEM
vs
NAVYNavy
77.3%
MemphisMEM
vs
TULNTulane
86.5%
NavyNAVY
vs
TULNTulane
96.0%
NavyNAVY
vs
UNTNorth Texas
103.7%
NavyNAVY
vs
USFSouth Florida
112.4%
East CarolinaECU
vs
TULNTulane
121.4%
East CarolinaECU
vs
UNTNorth Texas
131.1%
East CarolinaECU
vs
USFSouth Florida
140.8%
East CarolinaECU
vs
NAVYNavy
150.6%
East CarolinaECU
vs
MEMMemphis

Data from 2025-10-26 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9Week 10

Data from 2025-10-26 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on American Athletic Conference CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 43.8%
Game
South FloridaCCG OddsAway
South FloridaCCG OddsHome
MemphisMEM@RiceRICE
43.5%
(-0.3%)		48.6%
(+4.8%)
ArmyARMY@Air ForceAF
43.9%
(+0.1%)		43.6%
(-0.2%)
NavyNAVY@North TexasUNT
45.6%
(+1.8%)		43.1%
(-0.7%)
UABUAB@UConnCONN
43.9%
(+0.1%)		43.8%
(-0.0%)
TulaneTULN@UT San AntonioUTSA
40.9%
(-2.9%)		48.0%
(+4.2%)
East CarolinaECU@TempleTEM
43.5%
(-0.3%)		44.4%
(+0.6%)

Best Winner Combination for South Florida

RiceRiceArmyArmyNavyNavyUConnUConnUT San AntonioUTSATempleTemple

CCG: 65.0% • Scenario: 0.1%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for South Florida

UT San AntonioUTSA

CCG: 48.0% • Scenario: 40.9%

Data from 2025-10-26 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team9-08-18-07-17-26-26-35-3Overall
South FloridaUSF---95.6%-8.9%-<0.1%43.8%
MemphisMEM---98.4%-28.5%-<0.1%43.6%
North TexasUNT---77.6%-5.3%--42.8%
TulaneTULN--100%58.3%-1.1%--36.8%
NavyNAVY100%95.1%--37.0%-6.4%-25.4%
East CarolinaECU---58.9%-0.8%--6.3%
UT San AntonioUTSA-----46.8%-<0.1%0.8%
TempleTEM---83.9%-18.7%-<0.1%0.6%
ArmyARMY---------
CharlotteCLT---------
FL AtlanticFAU---------
RiceRICE---------
TulsaTLSA---------
UABUAB---------

Data from 2025-10-26 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team9-08-18-07-17-26-36-25-45-34-54-43-63-52-72-61-70-8Avg Wins
TulaneTULN(3-0)-0.0%12.0%41.8%0.0%0.0%35.4%0.0%9.9%0.0%0.8%-<0.1%----6.5
North TexasUNT(3-1)---52.5%0.0%0.0%37.9%0.0%8.7%0.0%0.8%-<0.1%----6.4
NavyNAVY(5-0)1.3%10.4%0.0%0.0%31.5%39.5%0.0%17.3%0.0%--------6.4
South FloridaUSF(3-1)---41.7%0.0%0.0%44.3%0.0%12.7%0.0%1.3%-<0.1%----6.3
MemphisMEM(3-1)---31.5%0.0%0.0%44.2%0.0%20.4%0.0%3.8%-0.1%----6.0
East CarolinaECU(2-1)---10.3%0.0%0.0%34.2%0.0%37.6%0.0%15.5%0.0%2.3%-0.1%--5.3
ArmyARMY(2-3)-----21.3%-45.0%0.0%28.5%0.0%5.1%0.0%0.2%0.0%--4.8
TempleTEM(3-1)---0.1%0.0%0.0%2.5%0.0%15.8%0.0%42.2%-39.2%----3.8
UT San AntonioUTSA(1-2)-----0.0%1.6%0.0%12.8%0.0%33.3%0.0%35.5%0.0%15.3%1.4%-3.5
FL AtlanticFAU(2-3)-------0.0%1.1%0.0%18.3%0.0%63.5%-17.1%--3.0
UABUAB(1-3)-------0.0%0.6%0.0%8.9%0.0%40.3%0.0%39.9%10.4%-2.5
RiceRICE(1-3)-------0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.4%0.0%7.4%0.0%45.6%46.6%-1.6
TulsaTLSA(0-5)-----------0.0%0.3%0.0%8.3%40.1%51.4%0.6
CharlotteCLT(0-5)-----------0.0%<0.1%0.0%1.0%17.0%82.0%0.2

Data from 2025-10-26 • SportsSimulate.com