NavyMidshipmen

7-0 T1st (5-0) in AAC

Data from 2025-10-26 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

25.4%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	vsVMIVMI	W52-7
2	9/06	vsUABUAB	W38-24
3	9/13	@TulsaTLSA	W42-23
5	9/27	vsRiceRICE	W21-13
6	10/04	vsAir ForceAF	W34-31
7	10/11	@TempleTEM	W32-31
9	10/25	vsFlorida AtlanticFAU	W42-32
10	11/01	@North TexasUNT	Win prob:27%
11	11/08	@Notre DameND	Win prob:2%
12	11/15	vsSouth FloridaUSF	Win prob:39%
14	11/27	@MemphisMEM	Win prob:24%
	12/13	vsArmyARMY(N)	Win prob:48%

Data from 2025-10-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	1.3%	100.0%
8-1	10.4%	95.1%
7-2	31.5%	37.0%
6-3	39.5%	6.4%
5-4	17.3%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-10-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

32.2%

25.8%

24.0%

14.9%

3.1%

Data from 2025-10-26 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
MemphisMEM@RiceRICE	25.1% (-0.3%)	29.0% (+3.7%)
ArmyARMY@Air ForceAF	25.2% (-0.1%)	25.7% (+0.3%)
NavyNAVY@North TexasUNT	56.0% (+30.7%)	13.8% (-11.5%)
UABUAB@UConnCONN	25.8% (+0.5%)	25.3% (-0.1%)
TulaneTULN@UTSAUTSA	23.0% (-2.4%)	28.8% (+3.4%)
East CarolinaECU@TempleTEM	24.2% (-1.1%)	28.0% (+2.6%)

Best Winner Combination for

Rice

Air Force

Navy

UAB

UTSA

Temple

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Navy

CCG: 56.0% • Scenario: 27.3%

Data from 2025-10-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 1 loss

99.5%

1.4%

100.0%

1.3%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

89.7%

<0.1%

88.2%

<0.1%

Any 2 losses

92.5%

10.8%

100.0%

1.3%

98.4%

<0.1%

98.2%

3.9%

95.7%

<0.1%

95.7%

<0.1%

92.4%

1.9%

90.7%

3.2%

11.3%

<0.1%

9.8%

<0.1%

9.5%

0.2%

Any 3 losses

36.5%

31.4%

98.0%

4.1%

91.9%

2.0%

91.8%

3.5%

13.4%

10.5%

10.0%

0.1%

9.4%

5.0%

9.1%

0.2%

8.3%

0.1%

7.9%

5.9%

Any 4 losses

10.9%

22.8%

13.0%

11.0%

9.3%

5.3%

8.5%

6.5%

Data from 2025-10-26 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-10-26 • SportsSimulate.com