Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
43.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W45-10 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W38-16 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W28-7 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W32-31 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W55-26 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W45-7 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | L24-31 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W34-31 | |
| 10 | 10/31 | Win prob:94% | |
| 11 | 11/07 | Win prob:70% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:63% | |
| 14 | 11/27 | Win prob:76% |
Data from 2025-10-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 31.5% | 98.4% |
| 6-2 | 44.2% | 28.5% |
| 5-3 | 20.4% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 3.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-26
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 45.5% (+1.9%) | 16.9% (-26.7%) | |
| 43.6% (+0.0%) | 43.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 48.1% (+4.5%) | 41.9% (-1.7%) | |
| 43.6% (+0.0%) | 43.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 40.7% (-2.9%) | 47.8% (+4.2%) | |
| 44.0% (+0.4%) | 42.8% (-0.8%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Memphis
Air Force
Navy
UConn
UTSA
East CarolinaCCG: 58.0% • Scenario: 2.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
MemphisUTSACCG: 49.6% • Scenario: 38.2%
Data from 2025-10-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
98.4%
31.5%Any 1 loss
28.5%
44.2%
49.6%
2.2%36.7%
18.2%
21.0%
13.8%19.2%
10.0%Data from 2025-10-26
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-26