Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
36.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W23-3 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W33-31 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W34-27 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L10-45 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W31-14 | |
| 7 | 10/09 | W26-19 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W24-17 | |
| 10 | 10/30 | Win prob:59% | |
| 11 | 11/07 | Win prob:30% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:92% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:76% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:97% |
Data from 2025-10-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 12.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 41.8% | 58.3% |
| 6-2 | 35.4% | 1.1% |
| 5-3 | 9.9% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 0.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-26
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 36.4% (-0.4%) | 42.1% (+5.3%) | |
| 36.8% (-0.1%) | 37.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 40.2% (+3.4%) | 35.5% (-1.3%) | |
| 36.5% (-0.4%) | 36.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 51.6% (+14.8%) | 15.4% (-21.4%) | |
| 37.3% (+0.5%) | 35.7% (-1.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Rice
Army
Navy
UABTulane
TempleCCG: 96.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
TulaneCCG: 51.6% • Scenario: 59.1%
Data from 2025-10-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
12.0%Any 1 loss
58.3%
41.8%76.4%
3.8%
72.3%
8.3%
72.0%
1.0%
67.2%
0.4%
51.1%
28.3%Any 2 losses
1.1%
35.4%6.6%
0.3%3.8%
0.1%3.7%
2.6%3.3%
0.7%2.9%
<0.1%2.3%
0.3%1.1%
1.0%1.0%
2.3%0.8%
19.4%0.7%
8.7%Data from 2025-10-26
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-26