Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
3.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W34-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L13-16 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W47-7 | |
| 4 | 9/19 | W38-28 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L15-20 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W37-0 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W25-24 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W41-3 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:25% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:32% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:96% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:68% |
Data from 2025-10-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 5.3% | 52.4% |
| 7-2 | 29.4% | 1.1% |
| 6-3 | 47.2% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 17.4% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 0.7% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-26
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 2.8% (-0.3%) | 5.5% (+2.4%) | |
| 3.5% (+0.4%) | 3.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 3.1% (+0.1%) | 3.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 3.0% (-0.1%) | 3.3% (+0.2%) | |
| 3.1% (+0.0%) | 3.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 6.3% (+3.2%) | 1.9% (-1.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Maryland
Purdue
Nebraska
Rutgers
Penn StateCCG: 60.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Penn StateCCG: 6.3% • Scenario: 28.2%
Data from 2025-10-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
52.4%
5.3%Any 1 loss
1.1%
29.4%
5.7%
0.2%3.7%
2.4%
1.4%
11.0%
0.5%
15.8%Data from 2025-10-26
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-26