Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
3.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W73-13 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W59-20 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W33-17 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W45-31 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L32-34 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W31-13 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | L24-34 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:77% | |
| 11 | 11/07 | Win prob:92% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:68% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:22% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:95% |
Data from 2025-10-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 9.9% | 27.3% |
| 7-2 | 44.8% | 0.8% |
| 6-3 | 35.1% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 9.3% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 0.8% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-26
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 2.4% (-0.6%) | 8.8% (+5.7%) | |
| 2.8% (-0.2%) | 3.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 3.2% (+0.1%) | 3.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 3.9% (+0.8%) | 0.4% (-2.7%) | |
| 3.0% (-0.1%) | 3.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 4.0% (+0.9%) | 2.7% (-0.4%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Maryland
Purdue
Michigan StateUSC
Illinois
Ohio StateCCG: 18.8% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
USCCCG: 3.9% • Scenario: 77.2%
Data from 2025-10-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
27.3%
9.9%Any 1 loss
2.1%
8.9%
3.1%
0.6%
2.8%
2.9%
2.8%
0.8%
1.5%
4.6%Data from 2025-10-26
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-26