Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
8.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W34-17 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L13-24 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W63-3 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W30-27 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W24-10 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | L13-31 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W24-7 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W31-20 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:97% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:85% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:77% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:24% |
Data from 2025-10-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 15.0% | 52.5% |
| 7-2 | 56.2% | 0.2% |
| 6-3 | 25.4% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 3.3% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-26
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5% (-0.5%) | 12.3% (+4.3%) | |
| 0.1% (-7.9%) | 8.2% (+0.2%) | |
| 8.9% (+0.9%) | 7.8% (-0.2%) | |
| 7.6% (-0.4%) | 9.2% (+1.2%) | |
| 8.4% (+0.4%) | 7.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 8.5% (+0.5%) | 7.8% (-0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
MarylandMichigan
Minnesota
Nebraska
Rutgers
Penn StateCCG: 20.8% • Scenario: 0.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
MarylandMichiganCCG: 12.8% • Scenario: 9.4%
Data from 2025-10-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
52.5%
15.0%Any 1 loss
0.8%
7.5%1.0%
4.4%
0.6%
0.5%
0.6%
2.6%Data from 2025-10-26
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-26