Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
28.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W59-13 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W69-3 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W34-14 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W41-7 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W30-24 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | L20-30 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W56-10 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W21-7 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:75% | |
| 12 | 11/14 | Win prob:96% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:78% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:88% |
Data from 2025-10-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 49.6% | 51.7% |
| 7-2 | 39.2% | 6.7% |
| 6-3 | 10.2% | 0.0% |
| 5-4 | 1.0% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-26
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 25.9% (-2.3%) | 49.4% (+21.2%) | |
| 30.9% (+2.7%) | 28.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 28.5% (+0.3%) | 28.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 28.2% (-0.0%) | 28.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 28.1% (-0.1%) | 28.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 54.6% (+26.4%) | 17.9% (-10.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Maryland
Purdue
Michigan State
Rutgers
Penn StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Penn StateCCG: 54.6% • Scenario: 28.2%
Data from 2025-10-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
51.7%
49.6%Any 1 loss
6.7%
39.2%
8.9%
6.9%
8.5%
2.3%
7.1%
16.6%
4.8%
13.5%Data from 2025-10-26
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-26