Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
80.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W27-14 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W56-9 | |
| 3 | 9/12 | W73-0 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W63-10 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W20-15 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W30-20 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W38-13 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W56-6 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:90% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:46% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:98% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:98% |
Data from 2025-10-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 39.6% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 52.8% | 76.4% |
| 7-2 | 7.3% | 5.9% |
| 6-3 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-26
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 84.6% (+4.2%) | 41.3% (-39.1%) | |
| 84.7% (+4.3%) | 80.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 82.3% (+1.9%) | 80.1% (-0.3%) | |
| 80.3% (-0.1%) | 80.7% (+0.3%) | |
| 79.9% (-0.5%) | 80.6% (+0.2%) | |
| 76.2% (-4.2%) | 82.0% (+1.7%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Indiana
Purdue
Michigan State
Nebraska
RutgersCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Indiana
Ohio StateCCG: 86.6% • Scenario: 64.9%
Data from 2025-10-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
39.6%Any 1 loss
76.4%
52.8%
85.5%
4.3%83.1%
0.8%
79.4%
1.1%
75.4%
46.6%Any 2 losses
5.9%
7.3%6.1%
4.9%6.0%
1.0%5.5%
0.1%4.9%
1.2%3.3%
<0.1%Data from 2025-10-26
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-26