Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W38-21 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W70-10 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W59-24 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L6-24 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W24-20 | |
| 7 | 10/10 | W38-19 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | L7-24 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W42-25 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:74% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:93% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:73% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:12% |
Data from 2025-10-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | 6.1% | 1.5% |
| 6-3 | 48.8% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 36.4% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 8.2% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-26
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0% (-0.1%) | 0.7% (+0.6%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Maryland
Purdue
Minnesota
Nebraska
Rutgers
Ohio StateCCG: 9.1% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
MarylandCCG: 0.7% • Scenario: 9.7%
Data from 2025-10-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
1.5%
6.1%Data from 2025-10-26
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-26