Mid-American Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-10-26
Conference Standings
| 1 |  Miami (OH)M-OH | 4-0 | 5-3 | 59.3% | |
| T2 |  OhioOHIO | 3-1 | 5-3 | 69.6% | |
| T2 |  Western MichiganWMU | 3-1 | 4-4 | 20.2% | |
| T2 |  BuffaloBUF | 3-1 | 4-4 | 13.7% | |
| T2 |  Central MichiganCMU | 3-1 | 5-3 | 3.9% | |
| T6 |  ToledoTOL | 2-2 | 4-4 | 33.1% | |
| T6 |  Ball StateBALL | 2-2 | 3-5 | <0.1% | |
| T6 |  Kent StateKENT | 2-2 | 3-5 | <0.1% | |
| 9 |  AkronAKR | 2-3 | 3-6 | <0.1% | |
| T10 |  Bowling GreenBGSU | 1-3 | 3-5 | <0.1% | |
| T10 |  Northern IllinoisNIU | 1-3 | 2-6 | <0.1% | |
| 12 |  Eastern MichiganEMU | 1-4 | 2-7 | - | |
| 13 |  MassachusettsMASS | 0-4 | 0-8 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-10-26
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-10-26
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-26
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 69.6%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 69.7% (+0.1%) | 69.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 67.6% (-2.0%) | 71.3% (+1.7%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Central MichiganBowling GreenCCG: 72.1% • Scenario: 11.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Bowling GreenCCG: 71.3% • Scenario: 54.2%
Data from 2025-10-26
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OhioOHIO | - | 100% | 63.0% | 1.6% | 69.6% |
| Miami (OH)M-OH | 100% | 100% | 60.4% | 6.0% | 59.3% |
| ToledoTOL | - | - | 72.1% | 2.6% | 33.1% |
| Western MichiganWMU | - | 99.9% | 37.5% | 0.5% | 20.2% |
| BuffaloBUF | - | 99.7% | 54.1% | 0.3% | 13.7% |
| Central MichiganCMU | - | 91.7% | 33.3% | 0.1% | 3.9% |
| Ball StateBALL | - | - | 83.9% | 1.2% | <0.1% |
| Bowling GreenBGSU | - | - | - | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| Kent StateKENT | - | - | 17.5% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Northern IllinoisNIU | - | - | - | 0.4% | <0.1% |
| AkronAKR | - | - | - | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| Eastern MichiganEMU | - | - | - | - | - |
| MassachusettsMASS | - | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2025-10-26
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OhioOHIO(3-1) | - | 43.1% | 41.7% | 13.7% | 1.5% | <0.1% | - | - | - | 6.3 |
| Miami (OH)M-OH(4-0) | 4.5% | 26.6% | 44.5% | 22.9% | 1.5% | - | - | - | - | 6.1 |
| ToledoTOL(2-2) | - | - | 44.4% | 43.5% | 11.1% | 1.0% | <0.1% | - | - | 5.3 |
| Western MichiganWMU(3-1) | - | 7.5% | 33.2% | 39.9% | 17.1% | 2.3% | - | - | - | 5.3 |
| BuffaloBUF(3-1) | - | 3.1% | 19.4% | 38.3% | 30.8% | 8.4% | - | - | - | 4.8 |
| Central MichiganCMU(3-1) | - | 0.8% | 9.6% | 36.2% | 43.3% | 10.1% | - | - | - | 4.5 |
| Bowling GreenBGSU(1-3) | - | - | - | 26.1% | 45.8% | 24.1% | 3.9% | 0.2% | - | 3.9 |
| AkronAKR(2-3) | - | - | - | 4.2% | 44.5% | 41.3% | 10.0% | - | - | 3.4 |
| Northern IllinoisNIU(1-3) | - | - | - | 4.5% | 38.5% | 46.8% | 9.7% | 0.5% | - | 3.4 |
| Ball StateBALL(2-2) | - | - | <0.1% | 2.7% | 30.1% | 51.9% | 15.3% | - | - | 3.2 |
| Kent StateKENT(2-2) | - | - | 0.2% | 3.4% | 19.6% | 43.3% | 33.5% | - | - | 2.9 |
| Eastern MichiganEMU(1-4) | - | - | - | - | 8.4% | 34.7% | 42.2% | 14.7% | - | 2.4 |
| MassachusettsMASS(0-4) | - | - | - | - | <0.1% | 0.5% | 7.9% | 39.1% | 52.5% | 0.6 |
Data from 2025-10-26