Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
13.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | L10-23 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W45-6 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W31-28 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L17-21 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L17-20 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W31-30 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W28-21 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | L16-24 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:46% | |
| 12 | 11/12 | Win prob:64% | |
| 13 | 11/19 | Win prob:45% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:24% |
Data from 2025-10-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 3.1% | 99.7% |
| 6-2 | 19.4% | 54.1% |
| 5-3 | 38.3% | 0.3% |
| 4-4 | 30.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 8.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-26
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 16.8% (+3.1%) | 12.9% (-0.8%) | |
| 24.5% (+10.8%) | 4.5% (-9.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Central MichiganBuffaloCCG: 30.0% • Scenario: 9.6%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
BuffaloCCG: 24.5% • Scenario: 45.8%
Data from 2025-10-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.7%
3.1%Data from 2025-10-26
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-26