Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
33.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L16-24 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W45-21 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W60-0 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L13-14 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W45-3 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | L23-28 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W45-10 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | L7-28 | |
| 11 | 11/05 | Win prob:87% | |
| 12 | 11/12 | Win prob:61% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:97% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:86% |
Data from 2025-10-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 44.4% | 72.1% |
| 5-3 | 43.5% | 2.6% |
| 4-4 | 11.1% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 1.0% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-26
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 37.0% (+3.9%) | 32.1% (-1.0%) | |
| 29.5% (-3.6%) | 36.1% (+3.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Central Michigan
Bowling GreenCCG: 40.8% • Scenario: 11.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Bowling GreenCCG: 36.1% • Scenario: 54.2%
Data from 2025-10-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
72.1%
44.4%Data from 2025-10-26
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-26