Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
41.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/23 | W41-24 | |
| 1 | 8/30 | W55-6 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L21-45 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W31-16 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W27-22 | |
| 6 | 10/03 | W27-24 | |
| 7 | 10/14 | L6-25 | |
| 8 | 10/21 | W28-27 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:73% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:79% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:7% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:20% |
Data from 2025-10-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 11.6% | 98.9% |
| 6-2 | 53.1% | 55.1% |
| 5-3 | 30.7% | 3.6% |
| 4-4 | 4.6% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-26
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 41.7% (-0.1%) | 41.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 43.1% (+1.3%) | 41.1% (-0.7%) | |
| 41.3% (-0.5%) | 44.9% (+3.0%) | |
| 45.9% (+4.1%) | 38.0% (-3.8%) | |
| 50.0% (+8.2%) | 38.5% (-3.4%) | |
| 13.4% (-28.4%) | 52.1% (+10.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Sam Houston
Florida International
Middle Tennessee
Delaware
UTEPWestern KentuckyCCG: 74.0% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Western KentuckyCCG: 52.1% • Scenario: 73.5%
Data from 2025-10-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
98.7%
0.8%Any 1 loss
88.3%
14.3%
98.9%
10.8%75.1%
0.2%
74.1%
0.3%
52.6%
3.0%Any 2 losses
52.9%
51.8%72.3%
3.0%72.3%
3.8%52.4%
42.9%6.8%
<0.1%4.3%
0.9%3.2%
1.2%Data from 2025-10-26
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-26