Sun Belt Conference

Sun Belt Conference Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-10-26

Sun Belt ConferenceConference Standings

T1TroyTROY4-06-285.5%
T1James MadisonJMU4-06-166.6%
T1Southern MissUSM4-06-210.1%
T4Arkansas StARST3-14-44.2%
T4Coastal CarCCU3-14-30.4%
6MarshallMRSH2-14-332.4%
7Old DominionODU2-25-3<0.1%
T8Ga SouthernGASO1-33-50.5%
T8Appalachian StAPP1-34-40.1%
T8South AlabamaUSA1-32-6<0.1%
T8LouisianaUL1-32-6-
T8ULMULM1-33-5-
T13Texas StTXST0-33-40.2%
T13Georgia StGAST0-41-7-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-10-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Sun Belt Conference CCG Matchups

156.9%
James MadisonJMU
vs
TROYTroy
227.8%
MarshallMRSH
vs
TROYTroy
36.8%
James MadisonJMU
vs
USMSouthern Miss
43.2%
MarshallMRSH
vs
USMSouthern Miss
52.8%
Arkansas StARST
vs
JMUJames Madison
61.4%
Arkansas StARST
vs
MRSHMarshall
70.4%
Ga SouthernGASO
vs
TROYTroy
80.3%
Coastal CarCCU
vs
TROYTroy
90.1%
James MadisonJMU
vs
TXSTTexas St
100.1%
Appalachian StAPP
vs
TROYTroy
11<0.1%
MarshallMRSH
vs
TXSTTexas St
12<0.1%
Ga SouthernGASO
vs
USMSouthern Miss
13<0.1%
Coastal CarCCU
vs
USMSouthern Miss
14<0.1%
Arkansas StARST
vs
CCUCoastal Car
15<0.1%
Arkansas StARST
vs
GASOGa Southern

Data from 2025-10-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Sun Belt ConferenceCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9Week 10

Data from 2025-10-26 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on Sun Belt Conference CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 85.5%
Game
TroyCCG OddsAway
TroyCCG OddsHome
LouisianaUL@South AlabamaUSA
85.3%
(-0.2%)		85.6%
(+0.1%)
James MadisonJMU@Texas StTXST
85.5%
(-0.0%)		85.5%
(+0.0%)
Arkansas StARST@TroyTROY
53.6%
(-31.9%)		90.8%
(+5.3%)
MarshallMRSH@Coastal CarCCU
85.5%
(-0.0%)		85.6%
(+0.1%)
Old DominionODU@ULMULM
85.5%
(-0.0%)		85.6%
(+0.1%)

Best Winner Combination for Troy

LouisianaLouisianaTexas StTexas StateTroyTroyCoastal CarCoastal CarolinaULMUL Monroe

CCG: 94.5% • Scenario: 0.2%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Troy

TroyTroy

CCG: 90.8% • Scenario: 85.7%

Data from 2025-10-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Sun Belt ConferenceCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team8-07-16-25-34-4Overall
TroyTROY100%91.1%69.9%27.8%0.6%85.5%
James MadisonJMU100%57.7%23.3%2.2%-66.6%
MarshallMRSH-100%30.0%0.8%-32.4%
Southern MissUSM100%74.7%3.1%--10.1%
Arkansas StARST-100%25.6%2.8%-4.2%
Ga SouthernGASO---23.4%0.3%0.5%
Coastal CarCCU-100%2.2%--0.4%
Texas StTXST---0.5%0.4%0.2%
Appalachian StAPP---12.8%0.3%0.1%
Old DominionODU--<0.1%<0.1%-<0.1%
South AlabamaUSA---0.1%-<0.1%
Georgia StGAST------
LouisianaUL---<0.1%--
ULMULM------

Data from 2025-10-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Sun Belt ConferenceFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team8-07-16-25-34-43-52-61-70-8Avg Wins
James MadisonJMU(4-0)37.0%44.7%16.5%1.8%<0.1%----7.2
TroyTROY(4-0)24.5%47.0%24.4%3.9%0.2%----6.9
MarshallMRSH(2-1)-18.4%45.8%28.0%7.0%0.7%<0.1%--5.7
Southern MissUSM(4-0)1.3%10.5%31.6%39.6%17.0%----5.4
Old DominionODU(2-2)--26.6%45.7%23.8%3.7%0.1%--4.9
Arkansas StARST(3-1)-0.9%9.4%31.2%40.5%18.0%---4.3
Coastal CarCCU(3-1)-0.2%5.1%29.9%51.1%13.7%---4.3
Texas StTXST(0-3)---12.9%40.2%33.8%11.6%1.4%<0.1%3.5
South AlabamaUSA(1-3)---10.1%41.5%36.1%11.3%1.1%-3.5
LouisianaUL(1-3)---4.3%24.3%43.8%24.8%2.8%-3.0
Ga SouthernGASO(1-3)---1.8%16.0%39.0%34.6%8.6%-2.7
Appalachian StAPP(1-3)---0.7%12.1%42.0%36.6%8.7%-2.6
ULMULM(1-3)---<0.1%0.4%5.7%31.8%62.1%-1.4
Georgia StGAST(0-4)----<0.1%0.4%6.1%34.0%59.5%0.5

Data from 2025-10-26 • SportsSimulate.com