Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
32.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L7-45 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L20-21 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W38-7 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W42-28 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L51-54 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W48-24 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W40-37 | |
| 10 | 10/30 | Win prob:84% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:37% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:92% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:76% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:85% |
Data from 2025-10-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 18.4% | 100.0% |
| 6-2 | 45.8% | 30.0% |
| 5-3 | 28.0% | 0.8% |
| 4-4 | 7.0% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.7% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-26
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 32.6% (+0.3%) | 32.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 32.3% (-0.1%) | 32.6% (+0.2%) | |
| 32.6% (+0.2%) | 32.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 34.4% (+2.0%) | 21.6% (-10.8%) | |
| 32.5% (+0.1%) | 31.8% (-0.7%) |
Best Winner Combination for
South Alabama
Texas State
Arkansas StateMarshall
UL MonroeCCG: 36.2% • Scenario: 0.3%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
MarshallCCG: 34.4% • Scenario: 84.6%
Data from 2025-10-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
18.4%Any 1 loss
30.0%
45.8%
100.0%
1.6%
100.0%
5.9%
98.3%
3.3%
88.4%
3.2%
0.5%
31.8%Data from 2025-10-26
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-26