Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
85.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W38-20 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L16-27 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L7-28 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W21-17 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W31-24 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W48-41 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W37-14 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W35-23 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:85% | |
| 12 | 11/13 | Win prob:46% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:93% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:67% |
Data from 2025-10-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 24.5% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 47.0% | 91.1% |
| 6-2 | 24.4% | 69.9% |
| 5-3 | 3.9% | 27.8% |
| 4-4 | 0.2% | 0.6% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-26
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 85.3% (-0.2%) | 85.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 85.5% (-0.0%) | 85.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 53.6% (-31.9%) | 90.8% (+5.3%) | |
| 85.5% (-0.0%) | 85.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 85.5% (-0.0%) | 85.6% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Louisiana
Texas StateTroy
Coastal Carolina
UL MonroeCCG: 94.5% • Scenario: 0.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
TroyCCG: 90.8% • Scenario: 85.7%
Data from 2025-10-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
24.5%Any 1 loss
91.1%
47.0%
100.0%
29.1%
100.0%
1.8%
78.0%
4.1%
72.4%
11.9%Any 2 losses
76.1%
22.4%100.0%
2.1%79.4%
4.9%77.0%
0.3%72.4%
0.9%71.5%
14.1%Data from 2025-10-26
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-26