American Athletic Conference

American Athletic Conference Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-11-02

American Athletic ConferenceConference Standings

1NavyNAVY5-17-114.3%
T2North TexasUNT4-18-166.1%
T2MemphisMEM4-18-147.5%
T4South FloridaUSF3-16-246.5%
T4TulaneTULN3-16-214.0%
T4East CarolinaECU3-15-39.7%
7TempleTEM3-25-40.1%
8UT San AntonioUTSA2-24-41.9%
T9ArmyARMY2-34-4-
T9FL AtlanticFAU2-33-5-
11UABUAB1-33-5-
12RiceRICE1-44-5-
T13CharlotteCLT0-51-7-
T13TulsaTLSA0-52-6-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely American Athletic Conference CCG Matchups

122.1%
North TexasUNT
vs
USFSouth Florida
221.8%
MemphisMEM
vs
UNTNorth Texas
318.5%
MemphisMEM
vs
USFSouth Florida
48.5%
NavyNAVY
vs
UNTNorth Texas
57.6%
North TexasUNT
vs
TULNTulane
65.0%
East CarolinaECU
vs
UNTNorth Texas
73.9%
MemphisMEM
vs
NAVYNavy
82.9%
South FloridaUSF
vs
TULNTulane
92.0%
East CarolinaECU
vs
USFSouth Florida
101.6%
MemphisMEM
vs
TULNTulane
111.2%
East CarolinaECU
vs
MEMMemphis
121.1%
East CarolinaECU
vs
TULNTulane
131.1%
North TexasUNT
vs
UTSAUT San Antonio
140.9%
NavyNAVY
vs
USFSouth Florida
150.6%
NavyNAVY
vs
TULNTulane

Data from 2025-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9Week 10Week 11

Data from 2025-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on American Athletic Conference CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 66.1%
Game
North TexasCCG OddsAway
North TexasCCG OddsHome
UT San AntonioUTSA@South FloridaUSF
79.3%
(+13.3%)		62.9%
(-3.2%)
TulaneTULN@MemphisMEM
74.8%
(+8.7%)		62.4%
(-3.7%)
UABUAB@RiceRICE
66.1%
(-0.0%)		66.1%
(+0.0%)
TulsaTLSA@FL AtlanticFAU
66.5%
(+0.4%)		66.0%
(-0.1%)
CharlotteCLT@East CarolinaECU
72.9%
(+6.8%)		65.8%
(-0.3%)
NavyNAVY@Notre DameND
65.5%
(-0.7%)		66.1%
(+0.0%)
TempleTEM@ArmyARMY
65.9%
(-0.2%)		66.1%
(+0.1%)

Best Winner Combination for North Texas

UT San AntonioUTSATulsaTulsaCharlotteCharlotteNavyNavy

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for North Texas

TulaneTulane

CCG: 74.8% • Scenario: 29.8%

Data from 2025-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team8-17-17-26-26-35-3Overall
North TexasUNT-84.3%-9.6%--66.1%
MemphisMEM-98.3%-31.2%-<0.1%47.5%
South FloridaUSF-98.6%-12.2%-<0.1%46.5%
NavyNAVY99.5%-28.0%-5.9%-14.3%
TulaneTULN-64.3%-1.1%--14.0%
East CarolinaECU-64.0%-1.0%--9.7%
UT San AntonioUTSA---45.2%--1.9%
TempleTEM---35.8%--0.1%
ArmyARMY-------
CharlotteCLT-------
FL AtlanticFAU-------
RiceRICE-------
TulsaTLSA-------
UABUAB-----0.2%-

Data from 2025-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team8-17-17-26-36-25-45-34-54-43-63-52-72-61-70-8Avg Wins
North TexasUNT(4-1)-75.9%0.0%0.0%22.0%0.0%2.1%-<0.1%------6.7
South FloridaUSF(3-1)-41.7%0.0%0.0%44.0%0.0%13.0%0.0%1.3%-<0.1%----6.3
NavyNAVY(5-1)4.4%0.0%26.0%45.3%0.0%24.3%0.0%--------6.1
MemphisMEM(4-1)-34.2%0.0%0.0%44.4%0.0%18.8%-2.5%------6.1
TulaneTULN(3-1)-20.7%0.0%0.0%56.9%0.0%20.6%0.0%1.8%-<0.1%----6.0
East CarolinaECU(3-1)-14.4%0.0%0.0%43.3%0.0%35.1%0.0%6.9%-0.2%----5.6
ArmyARMY(2-3)---21.8%-45.0%0.0%28.2%0.0%4.8%0.0%0.2%0.0%--4.8
UT San AntonioUTSA(2-2)---0.0%4.2%0.0%26.2%0.0%43.7%0.0%23.8%-2.1%--4.1
TempleTEM(3-2)---0.0%0.3%0.0%6.2%0.0%34.5%-59.0%----3.5
FL AtlanticFAU(2-3)-----0.0%1.2%0.0%18.4%0.0%63.0%-17.4%--3.0
UABUAB(1-3)-----0.0%0.5%0.0%8.0%0.0%39.1%0.0%41.1%11.2%-2.5
RiceRICE(1-4)-------0.0%0.1%0.0%4.7%0.0%46.0%49.2%-1.6
TulsaTLSA(0-5)---------0.0%0.3%0.0%8.8%40.7%50.1%0.6
CharlotteCLT(0-5)---------0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.8%14.8%84.4%0.2

Data from 2025-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com