Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
14.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W52-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W38-24 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W42-23 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W21-13 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W34-31 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W32-31 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W42-32 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | L17-31 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:2% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:39% | |
| 14 | 11/27 | Win prob:23% | |
| 12/13 | Win prob:48% |
Data from 2025-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 4.4% | 99.5% |
| 7-2 | 26.0% | 28.0% |
| 6-3 | 45.3% | 5.9% |
| 5-4 | 24.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 12.7% (-1.6%) | 14.7% (+0.4%) | |
| 13.2% (-1.1%) | 14.8% (+0.5%) | |
| 14.3% (+0.0%) | 14.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 15.0% (+0.7%) | 14.1% (-0.2%) | |
| 14.4% (+0.1%) | 14.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 15.0% (+0.7%) | 14.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 17.4% (+3.1%) | 13.7% (-0.6%) |
Best Winner Combination for
UTSA
CharlotteNavy
TempleCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
TempleCCG: 17.4% • Scenario: 16.8%
Data from 2025-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
98.8%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
93.4%
4.7%
99.5%
4.3%
98.7%
<0.1%
11.7%
0.2%
8.3%
0.1%Any 2 losses
27.8%
26.0%98.5%
4.6%15.0%
0.3%14.4%
14.2%8.2%
6.8%7.1%
0.1%Any 3 losses
11.7%
22.6%13.3%
15.3%8.4%
7.3%Data from 2025-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-02