American Athletic Conference Tiebreaker Scenarios

Scenarios where tiebreakers determine conference championship game participants

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50 of 226 scenarios

Scenario	CCG Matchup	Probability
8-1 MemphisMEM North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF	CCG participants not 100% certain MemphisMEMSouth FloridaUSF 73.6% North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 26.4%	1.9%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 East CarolinaECU MemphisMEM South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain MemphisMEMNorth TexasUNT 99.2%	1.9%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 East CarolinaECU MemphisMEM NavyNAVY South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain MemphisMEMNorth TexasUNT 76.5% NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 23.5%	1.4%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 MemphisMEM South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain MemphisMEMNorth TexasUNT 61.8% North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 26.4% NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 11.7%	1.1%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 MemphisMEM NavyNAVY South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 51.1% MemphisMEMNorth TexasUNT 34.3% North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 14.5%	1.0%
8-1 South FloridaUSF 7-2 East CarolinaECU MemphisMEM North TexasUNT TulaneTULN	MemphisMEMSouth FloridaUSF	0.9%
8-1 MemphisMEM 7-2 North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain MemphisMEMSouth FloridaUSF 66.8% MemphisMEMNavyNAVY 28.1% MemphisMEMTulaneTULN 4.6%	0.9%
8-1 East CarolinaECU North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 63.9% East CarolinaECUTulaneTULN 21.5% East CarolinaECUNorth TexasUNT 8.4%	0.9%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 East CarolinaECU MemphisMEM South FloridaUSF	CCG participants not 100% certain MemphisMEMNorth TexasUNT 47.2% North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 30.0% NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 21.8%	0.7%
8-1 MemphisMEM 7-2 East CarolinaECU North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain MemphisMEMSouth FloridaUSF 48.1% MemphisMEMNavyNAVY 35.6% East CarolinaECUMemphisMEM 9.0%	0.6%
8-1 South FloridaUSF 7-2 MemphisMEM North TexasUNT TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain MemphisMEMSouth FloridaUSF 91.4% NavyNAVYSouth FloridaUSF 4.7% North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 3.9%	0.6%
7-2 East CarolinaECU MemphisMEM North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain MemphisMEMSouth FloridaUSF 56.0% MemphisMEMNavyNAVY 25.0% MemphisMEMNorth TexasUNT 7.2%	0.6%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 East CarolinaECU MemphisMEM NavyNAVY South FloridaUSF	CCG participants not 100% certain NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 59.7% MemphisMEMNorth TexasUNT 22.1% North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 18.1%	0.5%
8-1 North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 99.6%	0.5%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 East CarolinaECU NavyNAVY South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 73.2% North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 26.8%	0.5%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 East CarolinaECU MemphisMEM NavyNAVY TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain MemphisMEMNorth TexasUNT 69.3% NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 30.7%	0.5%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 East CarolinaECU MemphisMEM TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain MemphisMEMNorth TexasUNT 92.4% North TexasUNTTulaneTULN 7.6%	0.4%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 MemphisMEM NavyNAVY South FloridaUSF	CCG participants not 100% certain NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 57.4% MemphisMEMNorth TexasUNT 23.7% North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 18.9%	0.4%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 East CarolinaECU South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 58.1% NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 33.8% North TexasUNTTulaneTULN 7.4%	0.4%
8-1 MemphisMEM 7-2 North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF	CCG participants not 100% certain MemphisMEMSouth FloridaUSF 64.2% MemphisMEMNavyNAVY 35.8%	0.4%
8-1 MemphisMEM 7-2 NavyNAVY North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain MemphisMEMNavyNAVY 56.3% MemphisMEMSouth FloridaUSF 43.7%	0.4%
8-1 East CarolinaECU 7-2 MemphisMEM North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	East CarolinaECUMemphisMEM	0.4%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 MemphisMEM North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF	CCG participants not 100% certain MemphisMEMTulaneTULN 97.5% South FloridaUSFTulaneTULN 1.7%	0.4%
8-1 South FloridaUSF 7-2 East CarolinaECU MemphisMEM North TexasUNT	CCG participants not 100% certain MemphisMEMSouth FloridaUSF 83.5% North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 9.2% NavyNAVYSouth FloridaUSF 7.3%	0.4%
7-2 East CarolinaECU MemphisMEM NavyNAVY North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain MemphisMEMNavyNAVY 60.2% MemphisMEMSouth FloridaUSF 30.7% MemphisMEMNorth TexasUNT 5.4%	0.4%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 MemphisMEM NavyNAVY TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 62.0% MemphisMEMNorth TexasUNT 38.0%	0.3%
7-2 MemphisMEM North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain MemphisMEMSouth FloridaUSF 55.8% MemphisMEMNavyNAVY 24.3% MemphisMEMNorth TexasUNT 8.1%	0.3%
7-2 MemphisMEM NavyNAVY North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain MemphisMEMNavyNAVY 69.6% MemphisMEMSouth FloridaUSF 20.5% NavyNAVYSouth FloridaUSF 5.0%	0.3%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 MemphisMEM South FloridaUSF	CCG participants not 100% certain MemphisMEMNorth TexasUNT 63.9% North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 23.4% NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 12.7%	0.3%
8-1 MemphisMEM 7-2 East CarolinaECU North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF	CCG participants not 100% certain MemphisMEMNavyNAVY 45.0% MemphisMEMSouth FloridaUSF 44.7% East CarolinaECUMemphisMEM 9.6%	0.3%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 East CarolinaECU MemphisMEM North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF	MemphisMEMTulaneTULN	0.3%
8-1 MemphisMEM 7-2 East CarolinaECU NavyNAVY North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain MemphisMEMNavyNAVY 86.5% MemphisMEMSouth FloridaUSF 13.5%	0.3%
8-1 South FloridaUSF 7-2 East CarolinaECU North TexasUNT TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 82.5% NavyNAVYSouth FloridaUSF 15.8%	0.2%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 NavyNAVY South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 70.7% North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 29.3%	0.2%
7-2 East CarolinaECU MemphisMEM North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF	CCG participants not 100% certain MemphisMEMSouth FloridaUSF 46.8% MemphisMEMNavyNAVY 31.9% MemphisMEMNorth TexasUNT 7.9%	0.2%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 East CarolinaECU North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF	CCG participants not 100% certain South FloridaUSFTulaneTULN 48.9% North TexasUNTTulaneTULN 21.2% East CarolinaECUTulaneTULN 16.6%	0.2%
8-1 MemphisMEM 7-2 North TexasUNT TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain MemphisMEMNavyNAVY 54.9% MemphisMEMNorth TexasUNT 23.1% MemphisMEMTulaneTULN 22.1%	0.2%
8-1 South FloridaUSF 7-2 MemphisMEM NavyNAVY North TexasUNT TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain MemphisMEMSouth FloridaUSF 91.1% NavyNAVYSouth FloridaUSF 7.8% North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 1.1%	0.2%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 East CarolinaECU NavyNAVY TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 91.5% East CarolinaECUNorth TexasUNT 4.8% North TexasUNTTulaneTULN 3.7%	0.2%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 East CarolinaECU MemphisMEM NavyNAVY	CCG participants not 100% certain NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 54.4% MemphisMEMNorth TexasUNT 45.6%	0.2%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 MemphisMEM TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain MemphisMEMNorth TexasUNT 66.1% North TexasUNTTulaneTULN 18.4% NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 15.5%	0.2%
8-1 MemphisMEM 7-2 NavyNAVY North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF	CCG participants not 100% certain MemphisMEMNavyNAVY 78.1% MemphisMEMSouth FloridaUSF 21.3%	0.2%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 East CarolinaECU MemphisMEM South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN UTSAUTSA	North TexasUNTUTSAUTSA	0.2%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 East CarolinaECU NavyNAVY North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF	CCG participants not 100% certain NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 55.2% South FloridaUSFTulaneTULN 25.0% North TexasUNTTulaneTULN 14.5%	0.2%
7-2 East CarolinaECU NavyNAVY North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain NavyNAVYSouth FloridaUSF 43.2% NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 37.6% North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 15.4%	0.2%
8-1 MemphisMEM 7-2 East CarolinaECU North TexasUNT TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain MemphisMEMNavyNAVY 55.6% MemphisMEMTulaneTULN 34.6% MemphisMEMNorth TexasUNT 9.9%	0.2%
8-1 South FloridaUSF 7-2 MemphisMEM North TexasUNT	CCG participants not 100% certain MemphisMEMSouth FloridaUSF 51.6% NavyNAVYSouth FloridaUSF 38.9% North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 9.6%	0.2%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 East CarolinaECU MemphisMEM	CCG participants not 100% certain MemphisMEMNorth TexasUNT 56.3% East CarolinaECUNorth TexasUNT 22.8% NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 20.9%	0.2%
8-1 MemphisMEM 7-2 NavyNAVY North TexasUNT TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain MemphisMEMNavyNAVY 80.3% MemphisMEMTulaneTULN 10.2% MemphisMEMNorth TexasUNT 9.6%	0.2%
8-1 East CarolinaECU 7-2 MemphisMEM NavyNAVY North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	East CarolinaECUMemphisMEM	0.1%

How Tiebreakers Work

Head-to-head → CFP rank / computer rankings → Common conference opponents → Overall winning percentage

Some tiebreaker steps involve factors like point differential that cannot be predicted before games are played, leading to uncertain outcomes.