Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
47.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W45-10 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W38-16 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W28-7 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W32-31 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W55-26 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W45-7 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | L24-31 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W34-31 | |
| 10 | 10/31 | W38-14 | |
| 11 | 11/07 | Win prob:70% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:63% | |
| 14 | 11/27 | Win prob:77% |
Data from 2025-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 34.2% | 98.3% |
| 6-2 | 44.4% | 31.2% |
| 5-3 | 18.8% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 2.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 52.4% (+4.8%) | 46.4% (-1.2%) | |
| 11.6% (-35.9%) | 62.8% (+15.2%) | |
| 47.6% (+0.0%) | 47.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 48.3% (+0.8%) | 47.3% (-0.2%) | |
| 45.9% (-1.6%) | 47.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 46.3% (-1.2%) | 47.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 45.5% (-2.0%) | 47.9% (+0.4%) |
Best Winner Combination for
UTSA
Tulsa
Charlotte
NavyCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
MemphisCCG: 62.8% • Scenario: 70.2%
Data from 2025-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
98.3%
34.2%Any 1 loss
31.2%
44.4%
39.0%
19.6%26.3%
10.4%
24.1%
14.4%Data from 2025-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-02