Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
14.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W23-3 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W33-31 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W34-27 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L10-45 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W31-14 | |
| 7 | 10/09 | W26-19 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W24-17 | |
| 10 | 10/30 | L26-48 | |
| 11 | 11/07 | Win prob:30% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:92% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:77% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:97% |
Data from 2025-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 20.7% | 64.3% |
| 6-2 | 56.9% | 1.1% |
| 5-3 | 20.6% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 1.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 21.0% (+7.1%) | 12.2% (-1.7%) | |
| 45.7% (+31.7%) | 0.5% (-13.5%) | |
| 14.0% (+0.0%) | 14.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 14.6% (+0.7%) | 13.8% (-0.2%) | |
| 13.2% (-0.8%) | 14.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 14.6% (+0.7%) | 13.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 13.7% (-0.2%) | 14.0% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
UTSATulane
UAB
Tulsa
Navy
ArmyCCG: 84.6% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
TulaneCCG: 45.7% • Scenario: 29.8%
Data from 2025-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
64.3%
20.7%Any 1 loss
1.1%
56.9%
5.0%
0.6%
3.5%
5.9%
3.3%
1.8%
0.7%
48.6%Data from 2025-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-02