Conference USA Tiebreaker Scenarios

Scenarios where tiebreakers determine conference championship game participants

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50 of 134 scenarios

Scenario	CCG Matchup	Probability
9-0 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 Kennesaw StateKENN LibertyLIB Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 33.7% Jacksonville StateJXSTLibertyLIB 33.5% Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 32.8%	4.1%
9-0 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 Kennesaw StateKENN Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 50.2% Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 49.8%	4.0%
9-0 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 LibertyLIB Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTLibertyLIB 50.4% Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 49.6%	3.6%
8-1 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 Kennesaw StateKENN LibertyLIB Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 34.2% Jacksonville StateJXSTLibertyLIB 33.0% Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 32.8%	3.0%
8-1 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 Kennesaw StateKENN Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 50.6% Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 49.4%	2.8%
8-1 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 LibertyLIB Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTLibertyLIB 50.4% Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 49.6%	2.1%
9-0 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 Missouri StateMOST Western KentuckyWKU	Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU	1.8%
9-0 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 LibertyLIB Missouri StateMOST Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 46.1% Jacksonville StateJXSTLibertyLIB 41.6% Jacksonville StateJXSTMissouri StateMOST 12.3%	1.7%
9-0 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 Kennesaw StateKENN Missouri StateMOST Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 42.0% Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 40.6% Jacksonville StateJXSTMissouri StateMOST 17.4%	1.7%
8-1 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 Kennesaw StateKENN Missouri StateMOST Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 42.3% Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 39.1% Jacksonville StateJXSTMissouri StateMOST 18.6%	1.3%
9-0 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 Kennesaw StateKENN LibertyLIB	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTLibertyLIB 75.9% Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 24.1%	1.1%
8-1 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 Missouri StateMOST Western KentuckyWKU	Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU	1.1%
8-1 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 LibertyLIB Missouri StateMOST Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 44.9% Jacksonville StateJXSTLibertyLIB 42.7% Jacksonville StateJXSTMissouri StateMOST 12.4%	1.1%
8-1 Kennesaw StateKENN 7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 81.0% Kennesaw StateKENNWestern KentuckyWKU 19.1%	0.8%
7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST Kennesaw StateKENN LibertyLIB Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 29.9% Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 23.8% Jacksonville StateJXSTLibertyLIB 20.2%	0.8%
8-1 Western KentuckyWKU 7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST Kennesaw StateKENN LibertyLIB	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 77.2% Kennesaw StateKENNWestern KentuckyWKU 13.4% LibertyLIBWestern KentuckyWKU 9.4%	0.7%
8-1 Kennesaw StateKENN 7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST LibertyLIB Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 89.5% Kennesaw StateKENNLibertyLIB 6.7% Kennesaw StateKENNWestern KentuckyWKU 3.8%	0.7%
8-1 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 Kennesaw StateKENN LibertyLIB	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTLibertyLIB 82.8% Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 17.2%	0.7%
9-0 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 Kennesaw StateKENN Louisiana TechLT Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 52.0% Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 48.0%	0.7%
8-1 Jacksonville StateJXST Kennesaw StateKENN Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 52.0% Kennesaw StateKENNWestern KentuckyWKU 31.6% Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 16.4%	0.7%
7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST Kennesaw StateKENN Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 41.9% Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 34.6% Kennesaw StateKENNWestern KentuckyWKU 23.5%	0.6%
8-1 Western KentuckyWKU 7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST Kennesaw StateKENN	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 77.0% Kennesaw StateKENNWestern KentuckyWKU 23.0%	0.6%
8-1 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 Kennesaw StateKENN LibertyLIB Missouri StateMOST Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 27.4% Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 26.3% Jacksonville StateJXSTMissouri StateMOST 24.2%	0.6%
8-1 Jacksonville StateJXST LibertyLIB Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 53.3% LibertyLIBWestern KentuckyWKU 32.5% Jacksonville StateJXSTLibertyLIB 14.1%	0.5%
8-1 Western KentuckyWKU 7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST LibertyLIB	Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU	0.5%
9-0 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 Kennesaw StateKENN LibertyLIB Missouri StateMOST Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 28.6% Jacksonville StateJXSTLibertyLIB 24.4% Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 23.8%	0.5%
9-0 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 Kennesaw StateKENN Missouri StateMOST	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 54.2% Jacksonville StateJXSTMissouri StateMOST 45.8%	0.5%
8-1 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 Kennesaw StateKENN Louisiana TechLT Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 50.2% Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 49.8%	0.5%
8-1 LibertyLIB 7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST Kennesaw StateKENN Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTLibertyLIB 46.9% Kennesaw StateKENNLibertyLIB 28.4% LibertyLIBWestern KentuckyWKU 24.7%	0.4%
9-0 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 LibertyLIB Louisiana TechLT Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTLibertyLIB 34.5% Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 34.5% Jacksonville StateJXSTLouisiana TechLT 31.1%	0.4%
9-0 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 LibertyLIB Missouri StateMOST	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTLibertyLIB 66.9% Jacksonville StateJXSTMissouri StateMOST 33.1%	0.4%
9-0 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 Louisiana TechLT Western KentuckyWKU	Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU	0.4%
7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST LibertyLIB Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 49.4% Jacksonville StateJXSTLibertyLIB 38.4% LibertyLIBWestern KentuckyWKU 12.2%	0.4%
9-0 Kennesaw StateKENN 7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 87.6% Kennesaw StateKENNWestern KentuckyWKU 12.4%	0.4%
7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST Kennesaw StateKENN Missouri StateMOST Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Kennesaw StateKENNWestern KentuckyWKU 19.8% Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 19.2% Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 17.0%	0.4%
8-1 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 Kennesaw StateKENN Missouri StateMOST	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTMissouri StateMOST 58.3% Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 41.7%	0.3%
8-1 Western KentuckyWKU 7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST Kennesaw StateKENN Missouri StateMOST	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 39.1% Missouri StateMOSTWestern KentuckyWKU 32.4% Kennesaw StateKENNWestern KentuckyWKU 28.5%	0.3%
9-0 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 Kennesaw StateKENN LibertyLIB Louisiana TechLT Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTLouisiana TechLT 27.9% Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 26.6% Jacksonville StateJXSTLibertyLIB 24.3%	0.3%
8-1 Kennesaw StateKENN 7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST Missouri StateMOST Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Kennesaw StateKENNWestern KentuckyWKU 46.6% Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 28.3% Kennesaw StateKENNMissouri StateMOST 25.1%	0.3%
8-1 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 LibertyLIB Louisiana TechLT Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTLouisiana TechLT 36.5% Jacksonville StateJXSTLibertyLIB 32.1% Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 31.4%	0.3%
8-1 LibertyLIB 7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTLibertyLIB 66.1% LibertyLIBWestern KentuckyWKU 33.9%	0.3%
8-1 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 Louisiana TechLT Western KentuckyWKU	Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU	0.3%
8-1 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 LibertyLIB Missouri StateMOST	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTLibertyLIB 67.0% Jacksonville StateJXSTMissouri StateMOST 33.0%	0.3%
8-1 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 Kennesaw StateKENN LibertyLIB Louisiana TechLT Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 27.8% Jacksonville StateJXSTLibertyLIB 27.0% Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 23.8%	0.3%
8-1 Western KentuckyWKU 7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST Missouri StateMOST	CCG participants not 100% certain Missouri StateMOSTWestern KentuckyWKU 54.3% Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 45.7%	0.2%
7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST Kennesaw StateKENN LibertyLIB Missouri StateMOST Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Missouri StateMOSTWestern KentuckyWKU 13.4% LibertyLIBWestern KentuckyWKU 10.3% Kennesaw StateKENNWestern KentuckyWKU 10.3%	0.2%
8-1 Western KentuckyWKU 7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST LibertyLIB Missouri StateMOST	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 38.5% Missouri StateMOSTWestern KentuckyWKU 34.2% LibertyLIBWestern KentuckyWKU 27.4%	0.2%
7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST LibertyLIB Missouri StateMOST Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTMissouri StateMOST 28.4% Jacksonville StateJXSTLibertyLIB 18.1% LibertyLIBWestern KentuckyWKU 17.7%	0.2%
7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST Missouri StateMOST Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 49.0% Missouri StateMOSTWestern KentuckyWKU 25.7% Jacksonville StateJXSTMissouri StateMOST 25.2%	0.2%
9-0 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 Kennesaw StateKENN Louisiana TechLT	Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN	0.2%

How Tiebreakers Work

Head-to-head → CFP rank → Computer rankings composite → Academic Progress Rate

Some tiebreaker steps involve factors like point differential that cannot be predicted before games are played, leading to uncertain outcomes.