Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
36.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | L9-10 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L9-56 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W27-13 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W28-21 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W24-16 | |
| 7 | 10/09 | W35-7 | |
| 8 | 10/21 | W45-26 | |
| 9 | 10/28 | W33-20 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:63% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:22% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:63% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:35% |
Data from 2025-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 3.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 20.3% | 95.5% |
| 6-2 | 40.6% | 33.8% |
| 5-3 | 29.1% | 0.6% |
| 4-4 | 6.8% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 36.7% (+0.3%) | 36.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 46.5% (+10.1%) | 19.1% (-17.3%) | |
| 35.8% (-0.6%) | 39.1% (+2.7%) | |
| 39.3% (+2.9%) | 35.1% (-1.3%) | |
| 36.3% (-0.1%) | 36.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 36.4% (-0.1%) | 36.4% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Oregon StateKennesaw State
UTEP
Missouri State
Middle Tennessee
Louisiana TechCCG: 59.0% • Scenario: 0.4%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Kennesaw StateCCG: 46.5% • Scenario: 63.2%
Data from 2025-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
3.1%Any 1 loss
95.5%
20.3%
100.0%
1.8%97.3%
1.8%
95.0%
10.9%
94.5%
5.8%Any 2 losses
33.8%
40.6%52.3%
1.0%48.4%
6.4%43.8%
3.3%33.7%
6.5%28.3%
3.2%27.5%
20.2%Data from 2025-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-02