Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
26.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W28-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L24-34 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L13-23 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L13-31 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L7-21 | |
| 7 | 10/08 | W19-8 | |
| 7 | 10/14 | W30-27 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | W59-30 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:70% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:67% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:49% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:65% |
Data from 2025-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 14.5% | 94.0% |
| 6-2 | 37.2% | 33.5% |
| 5-3 | 33.5% | 0.5% |
| 4-4 | 12.9% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 1.8% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 26.4% (+0.1%) | 26.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 24.2% (-2.1%) | 30.0% (+3.7%) | |
| 25.7% (-0.6%) | 29.0% (+2.7%) | |
| 6.1% (-20.3%) | 35.3% (+8.9%) | |
| 26.2% (-0.1%) | 26.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 25.2% (-1.1%) | 26.8% (+0.5%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Sam Houston
New Mexico State
UTEPLiberty
Florida International
DelawareCCG: 46.5% • Scenario: 0.5%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
LibertyCCG: 35.3% • Scenario: 69.4%
Data from 2025-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
94.0%
14.5%Data from 2025-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-02