Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
38.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/23 | W41-24 | |
| 1 | 8/30 | W55-6 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L21-45 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W31-16 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W27-22 | |
| 6 | 10/03 | W27-24 | |
| 7 | 10/14 | L6-25 | |
| 8 | 10/21 | W28-27 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | W35-16 | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:79% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:9% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:20% |
Data from 2025-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 15.7% | 97.1% |
| 6-2 | 67.2% | 34.0% |
| 5-3 | 17.1% | 1.1% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 37.7% (-0.6%) | 38.5% (+0.2%) | |
| 32.1% (-6.2%) | 49.0% (+10.7%) | |
| 37.5% (-0.8%) | 41.7% (+3.4%) | |
| 42.8% (+4.5%) | 36.3% (-2.0%) | |
| 38.5% (+0.2%) | 38.0% (-0.2%) | |
| 37.7% (-0.6%) | 38.6% (+0.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Sam Houston
New Mexico State
Jacksonville State
Missouri State
Florida International
Louisiana TechCCG: 60.4% • Scenario: 0.4%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
New Mexico StateCCG: 49.0% • Scenario: 36.8%
Data from 2025-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
97.2%
1.5%Any 1 loss
77.7%
20.5%
97.0%
14.3%
57.4%
0.4%32.3%
5.9%Any 2 losses
33.2%
62.5%54.4%
3.9%32.6%
57.0%1.3%
1.6%Data from 2025-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-02