Conference USA Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-11-02
Conference Standings
| T1 |  Jacksonville StateJXST | 4-0 | 5-3 | 89.1% | |
| T1 |  Kennesaw StateKENN | 4-0 | 6-2 | 36.4% | |
| 3 |  Western KentuckyWKU | 5-1 | 7-2 | 38.3% | |
| T4 |  LibertyLIB | 3-1 | 4-4 | 26.3% | |
| T4 |  Missouri StateMOST | 3-1 | 5-3 | 8.3% | |
| 6 |  Louisiana TechLT | 3-2 | 5-3 | 1.5% | |
| 7 |  DelawareDEL | 2-3 | 4-4 | 0.1% | |
| T8 |  Florida InternationalFIU | 1-3 | 3-5 | <0.1% | |
| T8 |  UTEPUTEP | 1-3 | 2-6 | - | |
| 10 |  New Mexico StateNMSU | 1-4 | 3-5 | - | |
| T11 |  Middle TennesseeMTSU | 0-4 | 1-7 | - | |
| T11 |  Sam HoustonSHSU | 0-5 | 0-8 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-11-02
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-02
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 89.1%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 89.2% (+0.1%) | 89.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 88.1% (-1.0%) | 90.8% (+1.7%) | |
| 91.9% (+2.8%) | 76.8% (-12.3%) | |
| 88.9% (-0.2%) | 89.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 89.1% (+0.0%) | 89.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 88.1% (-1.0%) | 89.5% (+0.4%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Sam HoustonNew Mexico StateJacksonville StateMissouri StateFlorida InternationalLouisiana TechCCG: 95.2% • Scenario: 0.4%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Jacksonville StateCCG: 91.9% • Scenario: 81.3%
Data from 2025-11-02
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville StateJXST | 100% | 97.2% | 55.2% | 1.2% | 89.1% |
| Western KentuckyWKU | - | 97.1% | 34.0% | 1.1% | 38.3% |
| Kennesaw StateKENN | 100% | 95.5% | 33.8% | 0.6% | 36.4% |
| LibertyLIB | - | 94.0% | 33.5% | 0.5% | 26.3% |
| Missouri StateMOST | - | 95.6% | 18.9% | 0.3% | 8.3% |
| Louisiana TechLT | - | - | 18.4% | 0.4% | 1.5% |
| DelawareDEL | - | - | - | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Florida InternationalFIU | - | - | - | 0.4% | <0.1% |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU | - | - | - | - | - |
| New Mexico StateNMSU | - | - | - | - | - |
| Sam HoustonSHSU | - | - | - | - | - |
| UTEPUTEP | - | - | - | 0.7% | - |
Data from 2025-11-02
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville StateJXST(4-0) | 40.4% | 41.2% | 15.5% | 2.7% | 0.2% | - | - | - | - | 7.2 |
| Western KentuckyWKU(5-1) | - | 15.7% | 67.2% | 17.1% | - | - | - | - | - | 6.0 |
| Kennesaw StateKENN(4-0) | 3.1% | 20.3% | 40.6% | 29.1% | 6.8% | - | - | - | - | 5.8 |
| LibertyLIB(3-1) | - | 14.5% | 37.2% | 33.5% | 12.9% | 1.8% | - | - | - | 5.5 |
| Missouri StateMOST(3-1) | - | 4.2% | 21.8% | 40.0% | 28.0% | 6.1% | - | - | - | 4.9 |
| DelawareDEL(2-3) | - | - | - | 50.2% | 39.9% | 9.2% | 0.7% | - | - | 4.4 |
| Louisiana TechLT(3-2) | - | - | 7.6% | 32.8% | 42.3% | 17.4% | - | - | - | 4.3 |
| Florida InternationalFIU(1-3) | - | - | - | 2.3% | 16.3% | 38.7% | 33.5% | 9.2% | - | 2.7 |
| New Mexico StateNMSU(1-4) | - | - | - | - | 9.5% | 35.7% | 41.2% | 13.6% | - | 2.4 |
| UTEPUTEP(1-3) | - | - | - | 0.6% | 6.5% | 28.1% | 45.1% | 19.8% | - | 2.2 |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU(0-4) | - | - | - | - | 2.5% | 17.1% | 38.8% | 32.6% | 9.1% | 1.7 |
| Sam HoustonSHSU(0-5) | - | - | - | - | - | 1.7% | 16.9% | 45.3% | 36.1% | 0.8 |
Data from 2025-11-02