American Athletic Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-11-09
Conference Standings
| 1 |  NavyNAVY | 5-1 | 7-2 | 11.4% | |
| T2 |  North TexasUNT | 4-1 | 8-1 | 77.2% | |
| T2 |  South FloridaUSF | 4-1 | 7-2 | 57.0% | |
| T2 |  TulaneTULN | 4-1 | 7-2 | 36.6% | |
| T2 |  East CarolinaECU | 4-1 | 6-3 | 8.4% | |
| 6 |  MemphisMEM | 4-2 | 8-2 | 9.3% | |
| T7 |  ArmyARMY | 3-3 | 5-4 | - | |
| T7 |  Florida AtlanticFAU | 3-3 | 4-5 | - | |
| T7 |  TempleTEM | 3-3 | 5-5 | - | |
| 10 |  UTSAUTSA | 2-3 | 4-5 | - | |
| 11 |  RiceRICE | 2-4 | 5-5 | - | |
| 12 |  UABUAB | 1-4 | 3-6 | - | |
| T13 |  CharlotteCLT | 0-6 | 1-8 | - | |
| T13 |  TulsaTLSA | 0-6 | 2-7 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-11-09
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-11-09
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-09
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 77.2%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 77.2% (-0.0%) | 77.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 83.0% (+5.8%) | 76.5% (-0.7%) | |
| 75.6% (-1.6%) | 80.0% (+2.8%) | |
| 77.2% (-0.0%) | 77.6% (+0.4%) | |
| 84.0% (+6.8%) | 10.2% (-67.0%) | |
| 77.5% (+0.3%) | 76.9% (-0.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
TulsaFlorida AtlanticSouth FloridaCharlotteUABEast CarolinaCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
North TexasCCG: 84.0% • Scenario: 90.8%
Data from 2025-11-09
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-1 | 7-1 | 7-2 | 6-2 | 6-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North TexasUNT | - | 93.1% | - | 12.4% | - | 77.2% |
| South FloridaUSF | - | 96.5% | - | 11.8% | - | 57.0% |
| TulaneTULN | - | 55.6% | - | 1.0% | - | 36.6% |
| NavyNAVY | 100% | - | 25.0% | - | 4.3% | 11.4% |
| MemphisMEM | - | - | - | 20.9% | - | 9.3% |
| East CarolinaECU | - | 43.6% | - | 0.4% | - | 8.4% |
| ArmyARMY | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| CharlotteCLT | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Florida AtlanticFAU | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| RiceRICE | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| TempleTEM | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| TulsaTLSA | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| UABUAB | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| UTSAUTSA | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2025-11-09
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-1 | 7-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | 6-2 | 5-4 | 5-3 | 4-5 | 4-4 | 3-6 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North TexasUNT(4-1) | - | 80.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 18.2% | 0.0% | 1.3% | - | <0.1% | - | - | - | - | - | 6.8 |
| TulaneTULN(4-1) | - | 65.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 30.9% | 0.0% | 3.7% | - | 0.1% | - | - | - | - | - | 6.6 |
| South FloridaUSF(4-1) | - | 54.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 40.4% | 0.0% | 5.3% | - | 0.1% | - | - | - | - | - | 6.5 |
| NavyNAVY(5-1) | 3.5% | 0.0% | 23.9% | 45.9% | 0.0% | 26.7% | 0.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 6.0 |
| East CarolinaECU(4-1) | - | 18.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 46.1% | 0.0% | 31.1% | - | 3.9% | - | - | - | - | - | 5.8 |
| MemphisMEM(4-2) | - | - | - | 0.0% | 44.5% | 0.0% | 46.3% | - | 9.2% | - | - | - | - | - | 5.4 |
| ArmyARMY(3-3) | - | - | - | 21.6% | - | 49.1% | 0.0% | 28.0% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.0% | - | - | - | 4.9 |
| UTSAUTSA(2-3) | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 26.9% | 0.0% | 48.7% | 0.0% | 23.0% | 1.4% | - | - | 4.0 |
| TempleTEM(3-3) | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 26.3% | - | 72.4% | - | - | - | 3.3 |
| Florida AtlanticFAU(3-3) | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 22.0% | - | 76.5% | - | - | - | 3.3 |
| RiceRICE(2-4) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 9.4% | 90.3% | - | - | 2.1 |
| UABUAB(1-4) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 12.1% | 59.6% | 27.7% | - | 1.9 |
| TulsaTLSA(0-6) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1.6% | 35.5% | 62.9% | 0.4 |
| CharlotteCLT(0-6) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.3% | 10.3% | 89.4% | 0.1 |
Data from 2025-11-09