Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
9.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W45-10 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W38-16 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W28-7 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W32-31 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W55-26 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W45-7 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | L24-31 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W34-31 | |
| 10 | 10/31 | W38-14 | |
| 11 | 11/07 | L32-38 | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:56% | |
| 14 | 11/27 | Win prob:79% |
Data from 2025-11-09
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 44.5% | 20.9% |
| 5-3 | 46.3% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 9.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-09
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-09
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 9.3% (-0.0%) | 9.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 22.1% (+12.8%) | 7.7% (-1.6%) | |
| 4.8% (-4.5%) | 16.9% (+7.6%) | |
| 9.3% (+0.0%) | 9.1% (-0.2%) | |
| 7.5% (-1.8%) | 27.0% (+17.7%) | |
| 16.6% (+7.3%) | 0.0% (-9.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Tulsa
Florida Atlantic
South Florida
Charlotte
UABMemphisCCG: 87.5% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
NavyMemphisCCG: 30.2% • Scenario: 20.8%
Data from 2025-11-09
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
20.9%
44.5%Data from 2025-11-09
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-09