Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
36.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W23-3 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W33-31 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W34-27 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L10-45 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W31-14 | |
| 7 | 10/09 | W26-19 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W24-17 | |
| 10 | 10/30 | L26-48 | |
| 11 | 11/07 | W38-32 | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:89% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:77% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:96% |
Data from 2025-11-09
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 65.3% | 55.6% |
| 6-2 | 30.9% | 1.0% |
| 5-3 | 3.7% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-09
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-09
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 36.7% (+0.1%) | 36.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.7% (-35.9%) | 41.2% (+4.6%) | |
| 26.0% (-10.6%) | 54.6% (+18.0%) | |
| 36.6% (+0.0%) | 36.1% (-0.5%) | |
| 33.7% (-2.9%) | 65.5% (+28.9%) | |
| 37.2% (+0.6%) | 35.8% (-0.8%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Oregon StateTulane
South Florida
Charlotte
UAB
East CarolinaCCG: 83.3% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Tulane
NavyCCG: 61.6% • Scenario: 32.8%
Data from 2025-11-09
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
55.6%
65.3%Any 1 loss
1.0%
30.9%1.2%
2.8%
1.0%
19.8%
0.9%
8.3%Data from 2025-11-09
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-09